Two SEC powerhouses meet for the first time as conference foes when the Oklahoma Sooners face the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville on Saturday.
Joey Aguilar and the high-octane Volunteer offense will face a tough Sooner defense, but my Oklahoma vs. Tennessee predictions expect them to break through and cover as favorites.
Here are my early college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
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Oklahoma vs Tennessee predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Oklahoma vs Tennessee spread pick: Tennessee -3.5
John Mateer simply hasn’t been the same since returning from injury against Texas. He’s running far less and with less effectiveness, his completion rate has dropped, and he’s suffered a noticeable dip in yards per pass.
Luckily for him, he'll face a Tennessee secondary that isn’t that good. Missing two starters will have that effect, but making mistakes in single press coverage doesn’t help. It’s one of the reasons Kentucky hit some big pass plays this weekend.
The Volunteers' passing attack is also doing quite well at the moment. Joey Aguilar hit numerous downfield throws against the Wildcats, at one point amassing more than 270 yards on his seven biggest passes.
While Oklahoma’s defense is ranked highly, Mississippi exposed flaws this weekend. The Rebels threw for over 300 yards, with Trinidad Chambliss completing three of his seven passes that traveled at least 20 yards.
For me, the difference in this game will be the Tennessee pass rush. The Sooners aren’t protecting Mateer properly, ranking 93rd nationally in sacks allowed per conference game. The Vols are averaging 3.2 sacks per game in SEC play, despite getting just one against Kentucky.
The Oklahoma offense ranks 72nd in points per quality drive and is routinely operating behind the chains on second- and third-down plays.
While I expect Mateer to hit some big passes, there will be times this offense stalls out due to him getting sacked, and that lack of scoring will doom the Sooners to defeat.
Early Oklahoma vs Tennessee total pick: Over 56.5
How bad is Tennessee’s secondary? Well, Kentucky had never scored more than two touchdowns against a power conference opponent since Bush Hamdan took over the offense before last season — until the Vols allowed Cutter Boley to throw five touchdown passes this weekend.
The Vols rank 93rd in quality drive rate allowed and 113th in points given up on those drives. They also can’t get off the field on third down, ranked 89th in late-down success. Their 32 completions of 20+ yards are the eighth most in college football.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma managed to get pressure on Chambliss just 12 times from 47 dropbacks this weekend. The Rebels' quarterback thrived, completing 20 of 35 passes from a clean pocket for 291 yards.
If Aguilar is given that kind of time to operate, the Sooners will give up plenty of points again. On throws of 20+ yards, the Tennessee quarterback is 21 of 37 on the season for 834 yards and an 11:1 TD:INT ratio.
The Vols have gone over this total in every game this season, and only the 37-20 loss to Alabama came close to going below it. This is Oklahoma’s fifth game in a row, and the defense is showing signs of fatigue.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee odds
- Oklahoma vs. Tennessee spread: Tennessee -3.5
- Oklahoma vs. Tennessee moneyline: Oklahoma +128, Tennessee -154
- Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Over/Under: 56.5
How to watch Oklahoma vs Tennessee
- Oklahoma vs. Tennessee matchup
- Date: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Knoxville, TN
- Venue: Neyland Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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