Do not assume the Ohio State Buckeyes will wallop the Michigan Wolverines. We assumed that last year. And in 2022. And in 2021.
"The Game" may have the lamest nickname in college football, but its personal stakes have become the most dramatic in the sport. Little can be assumed, even less trusted.
But my Ohio State vs. Michigan predictions recognize the best unit in this matchup, and relying on the Buckeyes’ passing game can also help Ohio State’s defense. Kickoff comes at 12 ET on Saturday, November 29.
Ohio State vs Michigan same-game parlay
The Ohio State Buckeyes have not needed to emphasize star sophomore receiver Jeremiah Smith this season, let alone their passing game as a whole. Smith missed last week out of precaution, an acknowledgement of how superior the Buckeyes are to perhaps all of the Big Ten.
But even when not emphasizing the best receiver in the country, Ohio State has set up Smith to clear this prop in three of his last four games, as well as in six of his 10 games.
Similarly, quarterback Julian Sayin has rarely had to push the Buckeyes, yet he has thrown for at least 300 yards in six of 11 games.
Then why are these props somewhat diminished?
It is not out of deference to a Michigan Wolverines defense that has been susceptible to the pass on a down-to-down basis, dating back to the opener against New Mexico. Rather, it is because Michigan should try to junk up this game, drag it into the mud, and slow it down via any means necessary. That would reduce Ohio State’s chances of pushing the ball downfield.
The flaw in that logic is that as soon as the Buckeyes stake themselves to a lead, they will know the Wolverines will get desperate. Michigan does not have a strong enough passing game to catch up with ease, and as it tries to, Ohio State’s defensive front should make life miserable for freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood.
No defense is better against quarterback-designed runs than Ohio State’s, per CFB-graphs.com, so Michigan will not even have success via that recourse.
Every Ohio State score will increase the pressure on Michigan’s offense. And increased pressure on Michigan’s offense may well lead to uglier drives, thus leading to only more Buckeyes’ chances.
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