Rivalries sometimes take a back seat in today’s playoff-focused landscape, and it’s easy to wonder whether Ohio State sees things differently with its postseason path clear.
They don’t. The Buckeyes haven’t toppled Michigan since 2019, and the aftermath of last year’s upset is still echoing. This rivalry is as fiery as ever.
So while my Ohio State vs. Michigan predictions won’t commit to either side in a matchup this unpredictable, they certainly highlight where Michigan is most vulnerable.
Get our college football picks before the 12 p.m. kickoff on Saturday, November 29.
Ohio State vs Michigan prediction
Ohio State vs Michigan best bet: Julian Sayin Over 237.5 passing yards (-114)
The Michigan Wolverines have made a conscious choice all season long to allow passing successes to prevent explosive pass plays. That may sound counterintuitive, but it is a rather standard practice. Consider it a “bend, don’t break” approach.
This was apparent as early as Week 1, when New Mexico found success on 43% of its dropbacks but managed only two explosive pass plays. For some further context, remember that a successful pass play keeps a team on pace for a first down, while an explosive passing play is typically one of at least 16 yards.
Michigan does not mind an opponent inching forward as long as it does not find a chunk gain. Thus, the Wolverines rank No. 84 in the country in defensive dropback success rate, per CFB-graphs.com, but No. 13 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against.
That allowance will backfire against the best passing offense in the country. The Ohio State Buckeyes will take those modest gains, all while setting up explosive plays.
The Buckeyes rank No. 1 in both dropback success rate and EPA, all while dropping back 5% more often than an average team would in a given game state, the 30th-highest relative rate in the country.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin has cleared this prop in just six games this season, but when he has cleared it, he has actually topped 300 yards all six times. The Buckeyes have an explosive tendency at all times. Gifting them modest successes, too, will simply buoy Sayin’s Heisman candidacy.
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Ohio State vs Michigan same-game parlay
As bad as Michigan's passing defense has been this season, Ohio State's entire defense has been that good. Matt Patricia has proved all doubters, including yours truly, very wrong in his debut season as the Buckeyes' defensive coordinator. There is little-to-no reason to expect any offensive production from Michigan, and given the vitriol in this rivalry, even a late score threatening this team total should be far from a concern.
Ohio State vs Michigan SGP
- Julian Sayin Over 237.5 passing yards
- Jeremiah Smith Over 77.5 receiving yards
- Michigan team total Under 16.5
Our deep-ball SGP: A snail's pace
No one should expect Michigan to win this for a fifth year in a row. That would be a claim too bold. But Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore knows his best route to victory is to slow this game down. Let Ohio State complete short passes and hope for slight mistakes. Chew up the clock. Stay within a possession.
Ohio State vs Michigan SGP
- Julian Sayin Over 237.5 passing yards
- Jeremiah Smith Over 77.5 receiving yards
- Michigan team total Under 16.5
- Michigan +10.5
Ohio State vs Michigan game predictions
Ohio State vs Michigan moneyline prediction
Michigan’s best path to what would be an outright laugh of an upset is obviously forcing turnovers, but Sayin has thrown just one interception in eight Big Ten games. No matter how comfortable Ohio State has been in those eight wins — an average margin of victory of 28.5 points — throwing only one pick on 230 attempts is trustworthy ball protection.
Furthermore, the Buckeyes have lost just three fumbles this season.
Without a turnover edge, there is effectively no hope for Michigan, and Ohio State has shown no indication of being sloppy with the ball.
Ohio State vs Michigan spread prediction
The most precise question is, can Michigan score enough to stay within 10 points of Ohio State?
Grinding this game to a halt will help that cause, simply lowering Ohio State’s output. But so will the Wolverines’ respectable offense. There is no ideal way to attack the Buckeyes defense, but finding an explosive passing play or two, as absurd as that thought sounds when tied to Michigan, should keep the Wolverines within striking range and within this spread.
Ohio State vs Michigan Over/Under prediction
Expect this game to be bogged down. Ryan Day has a bad habit of playing conservatively when the stakes rise, and despite Ohio State’s firm postseason positioning, the stakes are massive as the Buckeyes look for their first win in this series since 2019.
Ohio State vs Michigan odds
- Spread: Ohio State -10.5 | Michigan +10.5
- Moneyline: Ohio State -400 | Michigan +315
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Ohio State vs Michigan trend to know
As of kickoff, Ohio State will have gone 2,192 days without beating Michigan, despite being favored by a touchdown or more in three of those four matchups. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Michigan.
How to watch Ohio State vs Michigan
| Location | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date | Saturday, November 29, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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