Today's Ohio State vs. Iowa expert picks features our expert picks and spread analysis for this Big Ten rivalry clash.
Check out where the money is moving ahead of kickoff, plus browse our latest college football picks for complete Week 5 analysis.
Ohio State vs Iowa expert picks
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Ohio State Team Total Over 29.5 |
52% |
 Rob Paul: Ohio State -14.5 |
47% |
 Colby Marchio: Ohio State -14.5 |
47% |
 Chris Vasile: Ohio State -14.5 |
47% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Ohio State Team Total Over 29.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
Even though Iowa is 4-0, I've downgraded them 1.5 points since the start of the season.
I didn’t like their performance vs. Iowa State and the adjusted box score had Michigan winning by 12 last week. Last year, when Ohio State was running one of the slowest tempos in the country, I’d say that would play into Iowa’s hands.
This year, OSU is No. 53 in plays per minute. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country statistically. However, they have played an FCS opponent, Northern Illinois (No. 130 total offense), Iowa State (No. 110 total offense) and Michigan (No. 107 total offense).
Ohio State has a Top 10 offense and Iowa is taking a big step up in class here.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Ohio State -14.5
Price: 47% at Kalshi
Iowa's win over Michigan is a little misleading. The Hawkeyes needed a kick return touchdown and a touchdown on the final play to beat the Wolverines 20-19. Coming off a dramatic, potentially season-defining win like that, and with College GameDay in town, Iowa is in for a letdown.
The Buckeyes have one of the best passing attacks in the country thanks to Heisman Trophy favorite Jeremiah Smith, ranking No. 4 in EPA per pass and No. 3 in pass success rate (60.9%).
Meanwhile, Iowa just allowed Bryce Underwood to have arguably the best game of his career. The Hawkeyes' secondary has been inconsistent, with Phil Parker's defense ranking No. 66 in EPA per pass and No. 38 in pass success rate (41%).
If Iowa could run the ball, it might have a chance, but the Hawkeyes have been wildly inefficient on the ground this season, ranking 120th in rush success rate (36%). And I wouldn't trust Hank Brown against an Ohio State back seven that's third nationally in pass success rate (30.7%).
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Ohio State -14.5
Price: 47% at Kalshi
Ohio State needs a quality win after its Week 2 loss to Texas, and a road matchup against lowa presents that opportunity.
The Hawkeyes are coming off an outright win over Michigan, but were outgained by 144 yards and only rushed for just 58 yards. While Kinnick Stadium is one of the toughest environments in college football, Ohio State has the most well-rounded and talented offense lowa has faced this season.
With the Buckeyes looking to make a statement and lowa potentially riding high after its upset win, Ohio State should be able to take care of business.
If you can get -13.5, snag it!
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Ohio State -14.5
Price: 47% at Kalshi
Iowa’s defense has been excellent, but this is a different test.
Ohio State can attack through the air in ways Michigan couldn’t, and that matters against an Iowa defense that has been much more ordinary against the pass than its scoring numbers suggest.
If the Buckeyes force Iowa to throw instead of leaning on the run, the gap gets big fast. I think Ohio State eventually pulls away and covers the two-touchdown number.
How to watch Ohio State vs Iowa
| Location | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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