Notre Dame vs South Carolina Prediction: Gator Bowl Odds and Picks

South Carolina enters this game coming off two big upsets, but opt-outs and injuries have transformed this roster into a skeleton crew. Our college football betting picks acknowledge that and fade the Gamecocks team total.

Dec 30, 2022 • 13:24 ET • 4 min read

More quarterback uncertainty is swirling around the Notre Dame Fighting Irish right now than perhaps any other team in the country, but there is some confidence about who will start for Notre Dame this weekend against the South Carolina Gamecocks.

Of course, the Gamecocks may be the hottest team in the country coming off back-to-back Top 10 upsets, but a litany of defections could have them significantly weakened, hence why bowl game odds have them as the underdogs.

Here are our free college football betting picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs. South Carolina on Friday, December 30.

Notre Dame vs South Carolina best odds

Notre Dame vs South Carolina picks and predictions

Head coach Marcus Freeman has roughly acknowledged that Tyler Buchner has to reacclimate to on-field action. Due to various injuries and the pandemic, Buchner was already a very inexperienced quarterback, effectively playing only one season out of the last five. Missing this year added to that (as it was one of the five), and the adjustment curve Friday could be stark.

Backing him up will be freshman Steve Angeli, with all of seven collegiate snaps and no pass attempts under his belt.

To further aggravate the already-stagnant Irish passing game, star tight end Michael Mayer has opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft.

The reasonable solution will be to lean on Notre Dame’s running attack. There was some thought that fifth-year left guard Jarrett Patterson may opt-out, but he has not, and the combination of that offensive line and a “three-headed monster” of a backfield should set up the Irish to abuse South Carolina’s rush defense.

By advanced numbers, opponents added an average of nearly a fifth of a point to their expected points total with each rush. By more old-fashioned statistics, the outlook is even bleaker.

The Gamecocks gave up 192.4 rushing yards per game, No. 112 in the country. Opponents rushed the ball against them 39.7 times per game — No. 102 in the country — and gained 4.85 yards per rush. Now remove a starting defensive end, two starting cornerbacks, and a starting safety, and that rush defense should be only worse.

The Irish offense will have a clear path forward: run, run, run. They gained at least 223 yards in six of their final nine games this season, and that was all with Pyne at quarterback, much less a rushing threat than Buchner is.

And that will chew clock.

Meanwhile, South Carolina’s offense is compromised. There have been so many opt-outs it is hard to keep track of who will play. The Gamecocks’ top running back is in the transfer portal: and their second and third are injured. Their Top 3 tight ends won’t play in Jacksonville, and one or two receivers will join them. Oh, and South Carolina’s starting right tackle has opted out to prep for the NFL draft.

Gamecocks’ quarterback Spencer Rattler remains, but he may as well be alone.

If South Carolina is not going to have the ball much because the Irish are churning ahead 4-6 yards at a time, and when it does have the ball it needs to find new chemistry between Rattler and some unknowns, then doubting the Gamecocks’ team total makes plenty of sense.

My best bet: South Carolina team total Under 25.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Best college football bonuses

Looking to bet on some Bowl season action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now

B) Get a 50% profit boost on any college football bet today at DraftKings! Bet Now

*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of College football promo codes for 2022.

Notre Dame vs South Carolina spread analysis

This spread emphasizes how hard bowl games can be to handicap. A regular game would have favored the Gamecocks by a field goal on a neutral field. Since this matchup was announced, Notre Dame has been favored all along, though that line has fallen from -4.5 to -2.5.

That is presumably due to opt-outs, not to late-season surges. If anyone would benefit from the latter, it would be SC after upsets over Tennessee and Clemson to close the season.

But losing significant chunks of a depth chart has a much greater effect than losing one or two star players. The Irish are without their best offensive player in Mayer, their primary quarterback, and their best defensive player in end Isaiah Foskey. But that is effectively it, any other transfer portal entrants are not expected to play this week, anyway.

The Gamecocks may not have lost players of such talent, but when entire position groups opt-out, it is even more compromising. Between injury, NFL draft declarations, transfer portal entrants, and even retirement, South Carolina may as well be without any TE, three of its Top 4 RBs, and two of its Top 3 receivers, at the least.

The players stepping into their places may be talented, but there was a reason they were not playing this season. They aren’t as good, simply enough.

Notre Dame vs South Carolina Over/Under analysis

A total of 53.0 fell to 51.5, and the lack of one team’s starting quarterback and the majority of the other’s skill position players easily explains why.

But there may still be a reason to ponder the Over. Six Notre Dame games in a row have gone Over the total, largely thanks to the rushing attack. If there are only so many possessions in a game, an Over is still viable when you score on most of those possessions.

To add to that logic, South Carolina has the best special teams in the country — Beamer Ball reincarnated, so to speak — and the Irish blocked seven punts this season. Adding a fluke score may be all it takes for Notre Dame’s rushing attack to push this Over.

In-play microbetting trends for Notre Dame vs South Carolina

The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):

Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:

Notre Dame

Offensive score Yes: 13/33 (39.3%)
Offensive score No: 20/33 (60.6%)

Punts: 13/33 (39.3%)
TDs: 11/33 (33.3%)
FG attempts: 3/33 (9.1%)
TOs: 6/33 (18.2%)

South Carolina

Offensive score Yes: 11/38 (28.9%)
Offensive score No: 27/38 (71.1%)

Punts: 21/38 (55.2%)
TDs: 9/38 (23.6%)
FG attempts: 2/38 (5.2%)
TOs: 6/38 (15.7%)

South Carolina had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.

Notre Dame vs South Carolina betting trend to know

The Over is not only 6-0 in Notre Dame’s last six games but also 3-1 in South Carolina’s last four. Find more NCAA betting trends for Notre Dame vs. South Carolina.

Notre Dame vs South Carolina game info

Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Date: Friday, December 30, 2022
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Notre Dame vs South Carolina latest injuries

Notre Dame vs South Carolina weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo