Notre Dame vs BYU   Picks & Props

I expect Notre Dame to do the bulk of the scoring, especially in the second half, and I'd play the Over up to 49.5. The Fighting Irish have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking third nationally in offensive success rate (53.1%). With the emergence of Jonaz Walton at running back, Notre Dame can take advantage of a BYU defense that's 78th in EPA per rush.

BYU is 5-0 ATS, but the Cougars haven't played a strong schedule, and without LJ Martin, I like Notre Dame to cover -10.5 or better. The Fighting Irish's defense is the best BYU has played and ranks No. 2 nationally in available yards percentage (26.7%). Without the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year (Martin), the Cougars won't score enough to cover.

BYU has only played one top ten team the past two seasons, playing Texas Tech twice. They got destroyed in both games. It's all on their QB and I question if he can hold up vs perhaps the best defense in all of college football. In a big game like this, I believe Notre Dame has a much greater ability to elevate their play. BYU might be a top 10 ranked team, but they're barely in the top 20 in my power ratings. 

Notre Dame gets its first true road test of the season in Provo, and I am more than happy to fade the Fighting Irish. BYU enters Week 7 undefeated and 5-0 ATS, with Kalani Sitake and his squad primed for their biggest game of the season. I am backing the Cougars to keep this one close and would take BYU down to +10 at the most.