Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, and Arkansas will be eager to cut that thread when the two teams face off Saturday afternoon in Fayetteville.
With Taylen Green leading a fast-paced, explosive Razorbacks offense, the Irish defense is in for a serious test. Still, Notre Dame should have plenty of success on the ground, thanks to its dynamic running back duo going up against one of the nation’s weakest run defenses.
My Notre Dame vs. Arkansas predictions explain why this matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring, bettor-friendly showdown.
Read more in my free college football picks for September 27.
Notre Dame vs Arkansas prediction
Notre Dame vs Arkansas best bet: Over 63.5 (-110)
The Notre Dame defense has been shockingly poor.
Giving up 23 first-half points and 300 yards passing to a Purdue team that was picked by the media to finish dead-last in the Big 10? That’s a massive red flag.
Then again, when you’re ranked 130th in net EPA/play on defense, 125th in defensive pass success rate, and 121st in net EPA/drive, it makes sense. The Fighting Irish also rank 130th in EPA/pass on defense, allowing 4.6 points per quality possession.
The good news for Notre Dame is that Arkansas isn’t much better on that side of the ball. The Irish will find success with a powerful ground game led by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, as they're set to punish a Razorback defensive unit sitting 89th in early down EPA/play and 107th in EPA/rush.
Arkansas is also in the Bottom 10 nationally in rush success rate, and the Hogs are surrendering 4.1 points per quality possession. They allowed Memphis running back Sutton Smith to pick up 147 yards on just 12 carries last week, while quarterback Brendon Lewis topped the century mark as well.
Purdue racked up 11 “big plays” against the Irish, and only Texas Tech boasts more plays of 10+ yards this season than the Razorbacks. This game should turn into a track meet, and Notre Dame will see the Over hit for the fourth consecutive outing.
Notre Dame vs Arkansas same-game parlay
Sam Pittman might be coaching for his job after last week’s collapse against Memphis, and I expect him and the Hogs to respond. Arkansas has had success at times against the pass, and Green’s ability to punish Notre Dame with both his legs and his arm will be vital.
The Razorbacks will use their high-tempo offense to wear down the Irish defense and do enough to get the win at home.
Through three games, the Irish have allowed big games to their opponents’ primary receivers. O’Mega Blake sports 5+ catches in all four of his games and 60+ receiving yards in each outing.
Blake is also a sure-handed receiver with the most targets (35) of any player in college football this year without a drop. Look for him to have another big game against a defense allowing 14.0 yards per catch.
Notre Dame vs Arkansas 3-leg SGP
- Over 63.5
- Arkansas moneyline
- O'Mega Blake Over 66.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: The Price is Right
Love is getting plenty of attention, both in the buildup to the game and on the betting markets, but I think Price offers better value.
Although he's only getting half the carries as his teammate, Price is doing more with them, averaging 6.9 yards and scoring five touchdowns on 27 attempts.
Price rushed for 68+ in each of the last two games, and there will be plenty of yards to go around for the Irish against the struggling Arkansas run defense.
Notre Dame vs Arkansas 4-leg SGP
- Over 63.5
- Arkansas moneyline
- O'Mega Blake Over 66.5 receiving yards
- Jadarian Price Over 56.5 rushing yards
Notre Dame vs Arkansas game predictions
Notre Dame vs Arkansas moneyline analysis
Taylen Green is capable of hurting a Notre Dame defense that can’t generate pressure, and if things don’t open up downfield, he’ll take off for big plays.
The Irish have lost both games against high-powered offenses and will do so again here.
Notre Dame vs Arkansas spread analysis
I’m taking Arkansas to win outright, but you can’t go wrong in my opinion by taking the points instead.
Notre Dame has already lost both its close games against quality opponents, and the Hogs have the offensive firepower to take this one down to the wire.
Notre Dame vs Arkansas total analysis
I’m all-in on the Over in this one.
This is another game where these two teams should put up plenty of points as the game turns into an up-and-down affair.
Notre Dame vs Arkansas odds
- Spread: Notre Dame -6 (-110) | Arkansas +6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Notre Dame -225 | Arkansas +185
- Over/Under: Over 64.5 (-110) | Under 64.5 (-110)
Notre Dame vs Arkansas trend to know
Notre Dame has hit the game total Over in 10 of its last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs Arkansas.
How to watch Notre Dame vs Arkansas
| Location | Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR |
| Date | Saturday, September 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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