The Northwestern Wildcats and the USC Trojans will be running wild when these two Big Ten teams face off under the lights on Friday night.
With a pair of suspect run defenses, the Wildcats’ Caleb Komolafe and the Trojans’ King Miller are primed for big nights on the ground, so I’ve built an SGP that backs just that.
And for even more college football picks for this Big Ten battle, check out my Northwestern vs. USC predictions.
Our best Northwestern vs USC SGP for Week 11
Northwestern has found a new lead back in Caleb Komolafe. The redshirt sophomore has become the bell cow for the Wildcats, and he's rushed for 458 at 5.2 yards per carry over the last five weeks.
Komolafe looks like a bad matchup for USC, which hasn't been able to stop anyone in the ground game recently.
Opponents have stampeded all over USC this season. The Trojans rank 74th in EPA per rush and 119th in defensive success rate against the rush, and I expect that to continue in California on Friday night.
His rushing yards prop is at 70.5, a number he's gone Over this number in four of the last five games, and there’s no reason to think the Trojans will suddenly be the team to slow him down.
Komolafe hasn’t just been racking up the yards; he’s been finding paydirt as well. The Wildcats’ back has scored seven touchdowns over the last six games, and he’s found the end zone at least once in five of those games. If Northwestern scores, it’s likely Komolafe has a direct hand in it.
But he won't be the only back rumbling in this one. USC's King Miller has rushed for 509 yards at a big 7.8 yards per carry, with 357 yards coming in the last three games against Nebraska, Notre Dame, and Michigan.
Northwestern ranks 51st in EPA per rush and 82nd in defensive success rate vs. the rush. Miller should go Over 105.5 rushing yards for the third time in four games.
Note if there is an applicable parlay boost available.
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