Following a couple of close games, some people are starting to wonder if Bill Belichick is finally starting to figure things out in Chapel Hill.
Well, I’m not buying it just yet. The offense is still a mess, and now the North Carolina Tar Heels go on the road to play in a tough environment at the JMA Wireless Dome against the Syracuse Orange.
Now, the Orange have struggled since losing starting QB Steve Angeli, but the SGP I’ve built for this ACC matchup believes Cuse coach Fran Brown will make the proper adjustments on Friday night.
For even more college football picks for this ACC matchup, check out my North Carolina vs. Syracuse predictions for Friday, October 31.
Our best North Carolina vs Syracuse SGP for Week 10
The North Carolina Tar Heels are still plagued with problems, the biggest of which is the offense. They haven’t put QB Gio Lopez in the best position to succeed, and as a result, North Carolina ranks 127th in EPA per play and 124th in offensive success rate.
They have averaged just 13.4 points per game vs. Power 4 opponents and haven’t scored more than 18 points in those five matchups.
Yes, the Syracuse Orange have struggled since starting QB Steve Angeli went down with an ankle injury, losing four in a row since the win over Clemson. Now, I’ll give them a little leeway because they have played four of the top teams in the conference over that stretch.
But the one thing I can’t get past in this game is the coaching matchup. The defense has shown signs of improvement, and I have more confidence in Fran Brown to have his team prepared for this matchup. Expect him to try someone new at QB this week as well. The JMA Wireless Dome should be rocking on Friday night, and I like the better-coached team to win and cover this ACC matchup.
Whoever is throwing the football for Syracuse should lean on Johntay Cook. The Orange wideout has been impressive all season long, hauling in 37 catches for 456 yards and two touchdowns. More impressively, he's continued that play even when Angeli got hurt, with 21 receptions on 29 targets for 267 yards over the last four games.
North Carolina ranks 112th in EPA per dropback this season, so Cook will (sorry) cook in this one. He'll go Over his reasonable receiving prop of 54.5 for the fourth time in five games.
But he won't be the only wideout to shine here. UNC's Jordan Shipp has been one of the few bright spots on this Tar Heels offense. He’s got 22 catches for 253 yards and two scores this season, and he gets a solid matchup against a Syracuse secondary that ranks 90th in EPA per dropback.
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