There should be opportunities for both offenses to have success when North Carolina and Virginia meet up on Friday night.
After a heartbreaking loss to No. 15 Virginia, the Tar Heels continue to search for their first conference win in nearly a calendar year. It’ll like its chances against Syracuse as much as any. The Orange will hope to avoid that.
I'll be backing the offense with my three favorite North Carolina vs. Syracuse props and college football picks for October 31.
North Carolina vs Syracuse props for Week 10
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Gio Lopez |
Over 191.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Yasin Willis |
Over 54.5 rushing yards | -114 |
| Jordan Shipp |
Over 50.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Gio Lopez over 191.5 passing yards
North Carolina’s passing game has been a revolving door most of the season. Multiple quarterbacks have taken snaps, starters have lost jobs and reclaimed them, and it’s all combined to make things pretty “meh”. However, perhaps the Tar Heels may finally have a bit of stability with Gio Lopez. He’s coming off his best outing of the year in a narrow loss to Virginia, throwing for 208 yards, and I think he can build on it.
Syracuse doesn’t offer many deterrents. The Orange are largely middle-of-the-pack defensively, and against the pass, they’ve been worse, ranking 97th in EPA per dropback. They also concede their share of explosive plays, which is appealing when backing this prop. This UNC offense is from anything impressive, but the matchup and context make this number look light.
Lopez appears more settled in the scheme, reads are coming faster, and his timing with the receivers improved last week. The game script of North Carolina likely chasing points should also increase his volume, too. Add it up: a vulnerable pass defense, growing comfort from the quarterback, and likely elevated attempts. I’ll take a stab below 200 yards.
Yasin Willis over 54.5 rushing yards
There are a few parts to this.
I suspect this number is a little subdued in the market because of what North Carolina’s rushing defense has done this season, ranking 25th nationally in EPA allowed per rush. Yasin Willis has been a bit hit-or-miss this season, but he’s still exceeded this number in three of five conference games. Despite the overall numbers, I think North Carolina’s rushing defense can still be exposed, and I’m backing Willis to do that.
Without even considering the elements of the Tar Heels’ defense, it’s worth circling back to the projected game script of the matchup. As noted before, I expect Syracuse to be leading in this game, which should mean more volume for Willis, as he’s been the Orange’s bell cow when they’ve looked to salt away games this season. As for the matchup itself? It suits him.
While North Carolina has held the overall run game in check, they’ve struggled defensively against run stuffs and line yards, ranking in the bottom 40% of the sport in both metrics. To put it another way, the Tar Heels analytically look like a defense that stops the big run but struggles to slow down the between-the-tackles runs that Willis will provide.
Jordan Shipp over 50.5 receiving yards
Much of the same logic I used for the Gio Lopez play applies here. I am mostly doubling down on that thought process.
Syracuse has given up its fair share of explosive plays through the air, but it has been even worse in the intermediate passing game. The Orange rank in the bottom 20th percentile nationally at defending those route depths. That is where Jordan Shipp operates best, thriving on digs, crossers, and glance routes that punish soft zones.
This also comes down to backing the most reliable target on a day that should be favorable for Lopez. Because of inconsistency at quarterback, no North Carolina pass catcher outside of Shipp has consistently produced this season. He has the role and skill set to exploit Syracuse’s coverage profile, and the projected game script should support volume. I will take the proven option and the matchup, expecting steady targets and efficient yards.
Bet on CFB at FanDuel!
Make your college football bets at FanDuel, America's No. 1 sportsbook! Sign up now and by placing $5 on your first bet, you could win $300 in bonus bets if your wager is a winner!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
