A loss this weekend wouldn’t eliminate the Mississippi Rebels from the College Football Playoff conversation, but it would certainly put their chances on shaky ground.
The same goes for the Oklahoma Sooners — a defeat would hurt, but with a tougher schedule ahead, a win would mean even more for their playoff hopes.
My Mississippi vs. Oklahoma predictions back the home favorite for several reasons — and that potential sense of desperation isn’t one of them, even if it’s very real.
Let's dive into my college football picks before kickoff comes at 12pm ET on Saturday, October 25.
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Mississippi vs Oklahoma prediction
Mississippi vs Oklahoma best bet: Oklahoma -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Do not overthink this.
Mississippi’s roster has appeared flawed all season. A 6-1 outright record does not suddenly gloss over that reality. Blowing a fourth-quarter lead at Georgia in quite a predictable fashion last week furthers that doubt.
The Rebels are 4-1 in one-score games, those wins coming against Washington State, LSU, Arkansas and Kentucky. Perhaps some of those were more genuinely one-score games than others were, but should any of them ever have been that close?
Mississippi is flawed.
Oklahoma is the better team, the home team, enjoys the better quarterback and the better defense, led by arguably the best defensive line in the country. That should make the Sooners closer to touchdown favorites.
Think back two games, before Oklahoma lost to Texas and before Mississippi struggled against Washington State and then lost to Georgia. At that point, ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings would have made the Sooners about 5.5-point favorites against Mississippi.
Since then, both teams have been downgraded by 4.2 points, but should Oklahoma have taken the same drop in perception that Mississippi did when all the Sooners did was lose on a neutral field to their biggest rival before easily covering the spread against South Carolina? No. This is a buy-low moment on Oklahoma.
Enjoying the better team as a buy-low moment is a college football delight.
Mississippi vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
Mississippi's defense is a liability, most so against the rush. Georgia beat the Rebels into submission a week ago, and Oklahoma should do the same.
Once Mississippi shows wear, John Mateer will take most advantage.
Mississippi vs Oklahoma SGP
- Oklahoma -5.5
- John Mateer Over 39.5 rushing yards
- Under 54.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Lockdown Sooners Defense
Oklahoma’s defense alone could doom this game to its Under, especially with this number sitting above the key numbers of 51 and 52.
On the other side of the ball, the Sooners' defensive line should notch multiple sacks against Trinidad Chambliss, dooming the whole game's total as a result.
Combining that thought with a John Mateer touchdown should not have as much of an inflationary impact on the same-game parlay payout as it does. Mateer has, after all, scored in four of his six games this season.
Mississippi vs Oklahoma SGP
- Oklahoma -4.5
- John Mateer Over 39.5 rushing yards
- Trinidad Chambliss Under 35.5 rushing yards
- John Mateer touchdown
- Under 54.5
Mississippi vs Oklahoma game predictions
Mississippi vs Oklahoma moneyline prediction
The Rebels’ flaws have been showing more and more. They barely got by LSU, they nearly wet the bed against Washington State, and then they gave up a lead to Georgia.
The Bulldogs won by wearing out Mississippi’s defense. Oklahoma should take the same ground approach to assure a win, no matter what delights Lane Kiffin may scheme up early.
Mississippi vs Oklahoma spread prediction
While Mississippi is just 4-3 against the spread this season, Oklahoma is 3-1-1 against FBS opponents not named Kent State, which would not have the talent to even reach the FCS Playoffs. Furthermore, the Sooners’ one such ATS loss was in John Mateer’s first game back from three weeks off due to a hand surgery.
With Mateer back in rhythm, all faith should be in Oklahoma.
Mississippi vs Oklahoma Over/Under prediction
Take this Under 54.5. While Mississippi’s defense may be flawed enough to allow for some Sooners’ points, Oklahoma’s offense is not quite explosive enough to put up a bounty of scoring in this matchup. And with this particular Sooners’ defense, it should take a Boomer Sooner boom to clear this Over.
Mississippi vs Oklahoma odds
- Spread: Mississippi +4.5 | Oklahoma -4.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi +164 | Oklahoma -196
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 | Under 54.5
Mississippi vs Oklahoma trend to know
All seven of Oklahoma’s games this season have gone Under their pregame totals and by an average of 11.1 points. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs Oklahoma.
How to watch Mississippi vs Oklahoma
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK |
| Date | Saturday, October 25, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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