Mississippi vs LSU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tigers Hand Rebels First Loss

Mississippi is undefeated, but that record might be a smokescreen. LSU is the slight favorite and our betting picks break down why picking the Tigers on the spread instead of the moneyline is the right play for Saturday.

Last Updated: Oct 22, 2022 7:53 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jayden Daniels LSU Tigers College Football LSU
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Mississippi looks to extend its undefeated season, and LSU looks for a marquee win when the pair meet in an SEC affair.

Head coach Lane Kiffin has the Rebels cooking. Not only are they 7-0, but they've also scored over 30 points in five of their last six games. They came into this one off a win over Auburn, where they started slow but ended strong to win by double-digits. Head coach Brian Kelly has made steady improvements as the season continues for the Tigers. They've won two of their last three games, including a 45-35 win over Florida last weekend.

Who wins this one? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for LSU vs. Mississippi.

Mississippi vs LSU best odds

Mississippi vs LSU picks and predictions

These records are misleading, and these teams are going in opposite directions. And it's probably not the team you think it is.

Mississippi shouldn't be undefeated. Kentucky had them beaten a few weeks ago but QB Will Levis fumbled twice in the red zone in the game's dying minutes. Any score, even a field goal, would have likely won the game. Even Auburn put them in a bad spot last week. The game was a one-score contest very late, and in case you haven't paid much attention, Auburn isn't a good football team.

Throw out the Tennessee game, and LSU is playing its best football. Jayden Daniels is starting to look like a complete quarterback and threw for a season-high 349 yards and three touchdowns last week. This is the week the Rebels finally get burned after playing with fire so frequently.

We'll get to the nitty-gritty stuff in just a second but think about the strength of the schedule of these two. TeamRankings.com grades the LSU schedule to this point as the seventh best in the country. They've faced the likes of Tennessee, Florida, and Mississippi State.

Mississippi is undefeated, but the Rebels may also be paper tigers. Their schedule ranks 56th in the country, and they've faced exactly who? A floundering Kentucky team that threw a win away against them in Oxford? It's wildly apparent that the Tigers should be more prepared for the moment if we're looking at this matchup from a schedule standpoint.

LSU is a scary matchup for the Rebels because they've become more multifaceted as the season has gone on.

Brian Kelly wanted Jayden Daniels to get the ball down the field to make their elite wide receiver core felt. He's started to do it. He connected for multiple passes of 50+ yards against Florida and, two weeks ago, various passes for 35+ yards against Auburn.

Daniels has progressed with every passing week and he's been able to raise his game against the top competition. Against Top-25 teams, he's posted a 130 QBR vs. a 79.3 QBR against teams ranked outside the Top 25. Beyond the position progression in the passing game, LSU can get back to its bread and butter: running the ball. Auburn destroyed Mississippi on the ground with over 300 rushing yards, getting some production from its QB on that front, with Robby Ashford running for 35 yards on 12 attempts, which was negatively influenced by sack yardage.

LSU should be able to replicate this. Daniels is an athletic freak and has run for just over 400 yards this season on 4.3 per carry. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Mississippi front seven that has been prone to giving up yards to mobile quarterbacks. From a rushing perspective, in general, the Tigers should have success. Their offensive line can control the line of scrimmage as they have the third-highest rushing EPA in the SEC. The Rebels' rushing defense numbers are notable, but again, maybe this is another product of a soft schedule. 

These teams have played much differently in the last few weeks, even if the records haven't reflected it. So I'll take the Tigers here in a culmination of what we've seen the last few weeks.

My best bet: LSU -1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

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Mississippi vs LSU spread analysis

I'm taking LSU here on the spread, and there's no reason to opt for the moneyline. Historical finishes in college football show us that -1.5 at -115 is significantly better than a -134 moneyline, and these are the current numbers available. So to bet the moneyline instead, I would need a price of -120 or better.

This spread opened up LSU -2.5. At many locations, it remained there, but FanDuel has seen some money on Mississippi. According to our Covers Consensus page, the Rebels have attracted over 60% of the bets. But again, many books hold firm to the 2.5-point spread, which signals bookmakers believe there is a liability if they go to that number. So I'm looking to attack that liability.

This matchup feels like one where coach Kelly makes a statement. This is where he can fully ingrain his cultural impact on the program.

Mississippi vs LSU Over/Under analysis

The clock is going to run because both teams will want to run the ball, which points us to the Under, and I'll have to take it. I've had some success this season, fading inflated Mississippi totals in the live betting markets when it gets an early score. But even if you've done that in the pregame market, you've had some success betting it. The Under is actually 9-1 in the Rebels' last 10 games against a team with a winning record.

I've spoken extensively about the LSU offense and how it matches up with the Mississippi defense. Guess what? It's a similar dynamic on the other side of the ball. Mississippi should have some success running the ball against a defense that has been susceptible to solid ground games. Regarding yards per carry, LSU has the eighth-worst rushing defense in the SEC. It's giving up 4.2 yards per carry, and it's perhaps the only part of its game that hasn't shown much immediate improvement.

I don't expect any tremendous, overwhelming defensive plays, but LSU should be able to make the critical stops when it needs to. I'm grabbing it at the current number of Under 67.5 on FanDuel.

Mississippi vs LSU betting trend to know

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two teams. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi vs. LSU.

Mississippi vs LSU game info

Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Date: Saturday, October 22, 2022
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

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