Mississippi State cashing the Over on its Vegas win total by Sept. 20 was about the only thing that went right for the beleaguered Bulldogs in 2025.
MSU was the toast of the SEC in the opening month of the season but was just toast after that, losing seven of its final eight games to end a once-promising season with a thud. Will the moral victories of 2025 provide enough momentum for the Bulldogs to topple their win total this season? Sportsbooks seem to think so.
Here's a look at the recent history of Mississippi State win totals, along with predictions on whether the Bulldogs will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 4.5:
Mississippi State 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 4.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 4.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 4.5 | ⚪ |
| Abigail Miller | The Reflector | OVER 4.5 | 🟡 / 🟢 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
My ratings only project the Bulldogs to be favored in two games (vs UL-Monroe and Tennessee Tech). However, quarterback Kamario Taylor makes them dangerous to pull an upset each week.
Rob Paul
One of the most dynamic young QBs in college football, a top 40 transfer portal class, and the return of Zach Arnett as defensive coordinator can’t save Jeff Lebby and Mississippi State from one of the toughest schedules in the country.
The Bulldogs’ schedule is No. 5 in SOS (.637) and includes Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Texas, and Ole Miss. QB Kamario Taylor flashed plenty of upside as a freshman with an 82.3 QBR in 2025, but he cannot carry a team on his own against this schedule that’s No. 99 in returning offensive production (44%).
Unless Taylor becomes Superman, Fluff Bothwell looks the second coming of Anthony Dixon, and transfer Marquis Johnson (Missouri) is a star, the offense will struggle to overcome the defense. Outside of defensive backs Kelley Jones and Isaac Smith, Arnett isn’t inheriting much proven SEC talent.
Colby Marchio
Coming off major improvement in 2025 under head coach Jeff Lebby, the Bulldogs should be able to, at the very least, replicate their 5-8 record from last season. With sophomore Kamario Taylor as the leader of the offense for a second straight year, should provide some much-needed continuity.
The biggest question mark remains the defense, which has been a major issue for Mississippi State. However, they are hoping Will Whitson returning for his *sigh* seventh season can help improve the pass rush. They also bring back some solid pieces in the secondary, giving them a chance to hold things together on that side of the ball.
📰 Mississippi State media win total predictions
Abigail Taylor, The Reflector
I strongly believe that MSU football will shock a lot of people this season with Kamario Taylor being our starter and not second string anymore. Major players like Kelley Jones, Anthony Evans III, Ethan Pulliam and Fluff Bothwell decided to stay, which to me shows that they know the true potential our football team has for this season.
Mississippi State win totals, odds and results (2008-25)
(Mississippi State historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.5 | -185 | +150 | 5 | Over |
| 2024 | 4.5 | +125 | -150 | 2 | Under |
| 2023 | 6 | -120 | +100 | 5 | Under |
| 2022 | 6.5 | -155 | +130 | 8 | Over |
| 2021 | 6 | -120 | +100 | 7 | Over |
| 2019 | 7.5 | -100 | -120 | 6 | Under |
| 2018 | 8 | -130 | +110 | 8 | Push |
| 2015 | 7 | -125 | +105 | 8 | Over |
| 2014 | 7.5 | -110 | -110 | 9 | Over |
| 2011 | 7 | -175 | +135 | 6 | Under |
| 2008 | 7 | NA | NA | 4 | Under |
🔑 Key takeaways
- SEC-ond rate: Imagine if the Bulldogs could actually beat other teams in their conference. Mississippi State went just 1-7 vs. SEC opponents in 2025, extend a horrible trend in which the Bulldogs have just two wins in their last 24 conference games since the start of 2023.
- Hold on a SEC-ond: With that stunning trend as the backdrop, might I interest you in Mississippi State's SEC win total market? Over 2.5 conference victories is priced at -105, with the Under installed at -115. The Bulldogs' conference wins by season the last three years: 1, 0, 1. Food for thought!
- Rest? Who needs it?: "Rest is rust." I'm sure a Mississippi State football alum coined the phrase based on this wild trend: The Bulldogs are an incredible 18-5 SU since 2010 when faced with a rest disadvantage vs. their opponents.
How Mississippi State win totals are priced
Sportsbooks are approaching the Bulldogs' 2026 win totals as if Mississippi State deserved a better fate than a five-win 2025 campaign.
The Bulldogs looked beaten down en route to dropping their final four games of the season, but they asserted themselves fantastically in overtime losses to No. 14 Tennessee and No. 22 Texas four weeks apart. Throw in a two-point loss in Gainesville in between those OT heartbreakers, and Mississippi State's season almost looked quite different.
The emergence of quarterback Kamario Taylor should help keep Mississippi State competitive in plenty of games, provided that the Bulldogs' defense takes a step forward.
Mississippi State is an eye-popping 10-3 SU (8-5 ATS) in non-conference games over the past three seasons.
Mississippi State win total FAQs
Will Mississippi State make the CFP?
To quote the legendary Magic 8 Ball: "Outlook not so good." Mississippi State is set at +3500 to make the CFP, though those are its best odds to do so since 2019.
What is Mississippi State's projected win total?
The Bulldogs enter the season with a Vegas win total of 4.5, with the Over set at -128 and the Under at +104.
Who is Mississippi State's starting QB?
Sophomore Kamario Taylor is expected to be under center for Mississippi State in Week 1; he threw for 629 yards and five touchdowns last season.
What is the most notable Mississippi State win total trend?
The Bulldogs have carried plus odds on the Over just once since Sports Odds History began tracking win total odds; that was in 2024 (O4.5, +125), when Mississippi State finished with just two victories to cash the Under at -150.
What’s the best bet for Mississippi State this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the Bulldogs don't really have a more favorable side of the win total ledger, with two of three experts expressing low confidence in their plays.
