The Oregon Ducks return home for Week 12 following a thrilling victory over Iowa, only to be rewarded with a short week against a Minnesota Golden Gophers squad fresh off a bye week.
This is shaping up to be a “plug your nose and play the underdog” spot for the Gophers, who've been excellent following a bye week under P.J. Fleck.
Read on for my early Minnesota vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 14.
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Minnesota vs Oregon predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Minnesota vs Oregon spread pick: Minnesota +23.5
The No. 7 Oregon Ducks are a vastly superior team, hence the 23.5-point spread, but the scheduling spot is so tricky that I’m buying the underdog. It’s the trap game of all games, following an emotional and last-second win over Iowa and preceding a Week 13 matchup with USC.
The Ducks are 8-1 and have their sights set on the College Football Playoff, so their focus is likely elsewhere. The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren’t exactly pushovers at 6-3, however, and they have the benefit of coming off a bye week.
This has typically been a strong spot to back the Golden Gophers, who are 12-6 ATS following a bye week in the P.J. Fleck era. The Ducks, meanwhile, haven’t covered a spread at home since September 6, as the books continue to inflate their lines.
Dan Lanning’s squad was very banged up in Week 11, missing its top three pass catchers as Dakorien Moore and Kenyon Sadiq joined Evan Stewart on the sidelines. Minnesota star running back Darius Taylor has a chance to return to the field after an extra week off, which would be a huge boost as the Gophers are 14-6 when he receives 10+ touches.
Early Minnesota vs Oregon total pick: Under 46.5
Despite all the positives I mentioned above about Minnesota from a scheduling perspective, Fleck’s squad will still be hard-pressed to score many points in this spot. They rank outside the Top 100 in EPA per play, success rate, and explosiveness, whereas Oregon checks in at 10th in EPA per play on defense.
In fact, Minnesota has scored more than 23 points just twice against FBS teams. Both were in advantageous matchups (31 against Rutgers, 27 against Purdue) that bear almost no resemblance to the test that Autzen Stadium and the Ducks represent.
Oregon does have an efficient offense (third in EPA per play), but the status of Moore and Sadiq is paramount. The two NFL talents have combined for 50 receptions for 754 yards and eight touchdowns. Without them, Oregon won’t be best positioned to exploit a vulnerable Minnesota secondary (74th in coverage grade per PFF).
The Gophers have been fine elsewhere defensively, checking in at 46th in EPA per play. The defensive front is disruptive enough (sixth in front seven havoc) to avoid being a total pushover, despite what the line indicates.
Both teams rank outside the Top 90 in tempo, so this will be a slow-moving affair.
Minnesota vs Oregon odds
- Minnesota vs. Oregon spread: Oregon -23.5
- Minnesota vs. Oregon moneyline: Minnesota +1000, Oregon -2500
- Minnesota vs. Oregon Over/Under: 46.5
How to watch Minnesota vs Oregon
- Minnesota vs. Oregon matchup
- Date: Friday, November 14, 2025, 9:00 p.m. ET
- City: Eugene, OR
- Venue: Autzen Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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