More of this, please.
Whatever version of the College Football Playoff gets teams like Michigan to travel to face programs like Oklahoma — that’s the format we should all get behind.
Tonight's Michigan vs. Oklahoma predictions see an SEC dark horse building real momentum in what may be a make-or-break season for its head coach.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Memorial Stadium in Norman, with the game airing on ABC.
Michigan vs Oklahoma prediction
Michigan vs Oklahoma best bet: Oklahoma -5.5 (-105)
There is a statistical argument that offenses overly relying on the run are doomed to fail, no matter how efficient they are running the ball, with maybe half a dozen exceptions each season. In an attempt to avoid that plight, Michigan relied on an alum’s husband to land five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood.
Underwood played well in his debut last week, completing 21-of-31 passes for 251 yards (8.1 yards per attempt), but still the Wolverines relied on their ground game. And it was three times as efficient as the passing game.
If Michigan tries that again in Norman, it may simply lose a math problem. Oklahoma’s passing game should feast against a defense that was alarmingly susceptible through the air against New Mexico.
The Lobos found success on 43% of their designed dropbacks last week. That may not seem high, and it isn’t, but it is high for an offense like New Mexico’s against a defense like Michigan’s. For the quickest context, just looking at teams routed by the Big Ten last week: FAU succeeded on 27% of its passes against Maryland; Western Michigan 34% against Michigan State; Ball State 21% against Purdue. There are at least three more examples, none higher than 37%.
Sooners quarterback John Mateer should cut through such a porous defense, over and over again. Those repeated successes have too high a ceiling for the Wolverines’ running game to keep up on the scoreboard.
Michigan vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
Justice Haynes scored three touchdowns last week. More notably, he decisively led Michigan with 16 carries. If the Wolverines are in scoring range this weekend, Haynes should get the call. Thus, his anytime touchdown, even when priced at +125, should not jump this same-game parlay to +774 from +221.
Haynes's scoring will not immediately put Michigan within the spread, and that would be the only logic to so escalate this payout. Recognizing that is reason enough alone to lean into this value.
Michigan vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
- Oklahoma -5.5
- John Mateer Over 233.5 passing yards
- Justice Haynes to score a TD
Our deep-ball SGP: Mateer steers Sooners to victory
Michigan should count every quality possession as a welcome gift when facing a Brent Venables defense with a freshman quarterback. That limit alone cuts into the thought of Bryce Underwood racking up touchdown passes. Frankly, Sherrone Moore may turn to Justice Haynes on every snap inside the 10-yard line.
Michigan vs Oklahoma same-game parlay
- Oklahoma -5.5
- John Mateer Over 233.5 passing yards
- Justice Haynes to score a TD
- Bryce Underwood Under 1.5 TD passes
Michigan vs Oklahoma game predictions
Michigan vs Oklahoma moneyline prediction
Oklahoma fans have had this game circled all offseason, and it very much may be a barometer of Brent Venables’s future employment. Entering his fourth season as head coach in Norman, Venables has enjoyed just one winning season. He needs to make it clear what direction this year is going before the noise begins to clamor outside the program.
Michigan vs Oklahoma spread prediction
The math problem of the running-dependent offense vs. the passing-dependent offense is relatively simple: Most possessions leaning on the run need to find success on at least two out of every three rushing attempts, while passing offenses often need to find success on just one out of every three passing attempts. That kind of margin for error skews this thought toward Oklahoma by a full touchdown.
Michigan vs Oklahoma Over/Under prediction
The faith in the Sooners’ offense to set the terms through the air will then put an onus on Underwood to find his own success through the air. He showed enough touch against New Mexico to expect a couple such moments, even if they are too few and too late. Those moments should propel this game Over its total.
Michigan vs Oklahoma odds
- Spread: Michigan +5.5 | Oklahoma -5.5
- Moneyline: Michigan +152 | Oklahoma -184
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
Michigan vs Oklahoma trend to know
In Sherrone Moore’s first season, Michigan stumbled to a 1-6 record against the spread to start the year, worth keeping in mind after the Wolverines fell 17.5 points short of covering last week’s spread. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan vs Oklahoma.
How to watch Michigan vs Oklahoma
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK |
| Date | Saturday, September 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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