Michigan State vs Purdue Picks and Predictions: Spartan Run Game Could be Too Strong

The Boilermakers already took one team out of CFP contention, can they repeat the feat? The Spartans will be motivated and are a tough matchup — find out if you should bank on them with our Michigan State vs. Purdue picks.

Last Updated: Nov 6, 2021 11:01 AM ET Read Time: 5 min
Kenneth Walker III Michigan State Spartans college football
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In the first CFP Rankings Show, the Michigan State Spartans were ranked third in the nation. This means, if Michigan State wins out the rest of the season, the Spartans will make the College Football Playoff. 

Michigan State now hits the road to take on a dangerous Purdue Boilermakers team that already knocked Iowa out of a Top-5 spot. 

Check out our picks and predictions between Michigan State and Purdue on Saturday, November 6.

Michigan State vs Purdue odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Michigan State Spartans opened as a three-point favorite against Purdue. While some outlets are still hanging a three, there are a couple sportsbooks holding Michigan State as a 2.5-point favorite at -122. So, while the odds haven’t really changed, some sites are asking you to bet that 2.5 number. 

Meanwhile, the total opened at 52 and has plenty of discrepancies around all legal sportsbooks. The total can be found at 52.5 or at 54 at -110. If you’re looking to bet this game, be sure to shop around and find the best odds for your bet. 

 Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Michigan State vs Purdue picks

Picks made on 11/4/2021 at 5:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Michigan State vs Purdue game info

Location: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
Date: Saturday, November 6, 2021
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Michigan State vs Purdue betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Michigan State: Itayvion Brown LB (Questionable), Jack Camper DE (Questionable), Matt Carrick G (Questionable), Trenton Gillison TE (Questionable), Jalen Nailor WR (Questionable), Ian Stewart WR (Questionable)
Purdue: Ja’Quez Cross RB (Questionable), Garrett Miller TE (Questionable), Damarcus Mitchell DE (Questionable), DJ Washington OL (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Michigan State vs. Purdue.

Michigan State vs Purdue predictions

The Michigan State Spartans are 8-0 on the season and looking to stick around in the College Football Playoff Rankings for the near future. To do that, they’ll need to take down the Purdue Boilermakers, on the road, as a short favorite. 

Michigan State is averaging 36.4 points per game while allowing just 20.5. Clearly, this team has a lot of fight in them after last week’s massive come-from-behind win over Michigan. 

Quarterback Payton Thorne has thrown for 1897 yards on 131 completions along with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions. However, one of his favorite receivers, Josh Nailor, is questionable for this game. 

The Spartans offense isn’t all just playmaking. The offensive line has been terrific in the run game, helping Michigan State rush for over 200 yards per game this season. 

Kenneth Walker III made a name for himself last week, and that will more than likely continue moving forward. Walker ran for 197 yards on 23 carries with five touchdowns against Michigan. That’s an extremely hard defense to embarrass in the run game, but Walker did just that. 

Purdue’s rushing defense is absolutely dreadful. They’re giving up just 139.8 yards per game on the ground, but if they played against more run-heavy teams, the numbers would be much worse. 

Meanwhile, Purdue’s offense has slumped this season with just 22.9 points per game. Despite the defense allowing just 17.1 points per game, the rushing defense really isn’t great. The Boilermakers make up for poor rushing defense with good tackling, but overall, Michigan State should be able to run all over Purdue in this one and cover the short spread. 

Purdue has allowed 17.1 points on the season, while Michigan State has allowed 20.5 points. Despite the numbers, Michigan State is by far the better defense. 

The Spartans dominate with pressure on the quarterback, can stop the run, and have a secondary that looks much worse on paper than they actually are. 

Michigan State should be able to get through Purdue’s offensive line to create pressure and a couple takeaways against Purdue quarterback Aiden O’Connell. 

This game will finally prove just how dominant Michigan State can be on the defensive end. These two defenses are completely opposite but it takes two to hit an Over. Therefore, I’ll ride the Under in this matchup. 

College football parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Michigan State vs. Purdue picks, you could win $24.74 on a $10 bet?

Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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