New Year’s Eve means fireworks, and this year’s Cotton Bowl Classic is going to contribute.
The Miami Hurricanes take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in the first of four CFP Quarterfinal matchups, and I’ve cooked up an SGP worthy of the ball drop in Times Square.
A spread too big, a total too low, and an anytime touchdown to ring in the New Year. Be sure to check out our full Miami vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for more on the Cotton Bowl.
Our best Miami vs Ohio State SGP for the Cotton Bowl
The Miami Hurricanes enter this matchup with an 11-2 record and are coming off a defensively dominant 10-3 win over Texas A&M at Kyle Field in Round 1, where the Canes held the Aggies to just 4.3 yards per play. That defense will be the key to Miami's playoff hopes against the Ohio State Buckeyes in this Cotton Bowl Classic.
Ohio State is insanely talented on both sides of the ball with the likes of Jeremiah Smith and Arvell Reese, but this team has rarely been tested this season, particularly against strong defensive teams.
You can make the case that the only two elite defenses the Buckeyes faced were Texas and Indiana. Those games ended in a 14-7 Buckeyes win and a loss in the Big Ten title game; both one-score games.
Miami would fall into the elite category. Led by edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., the Canes have one of the best defensive fronts in the country, ranking seventh in opponent EPA per play and ninth in defensive success rate.
If Carson Beck can limit the mistakes, Miami will have a chance to win this game. At the very least, I'll take the 9.5 points.
Next up is the total: it's too low. It’s an overreaction to the recent games both of these teams have played. Miami’s 10-3 win in the first round and Ohio State’s 13-10 loss in the Big Ten title game.
While this is a matchup of two elite defenses, the offenses aren’t too shabby either. The Hurricanes rank 14th in EPA per play and 10th in offensive success rate, while the Buckeyes are fourth and first in those respective categories. A 24-21 or 27-20 game feels much more likely than another one of those low-scoring slugfests.
And if Miami is going to keep the Cotton Bowl close and send it Over the total, Beck is going to have to keep locking in on freshman Malachi Toney.
This game is full of wideout talent, and Toney is no exception. He’s playing his best football of the season right now, hauling in 35 catches for 348 yards and five touchdowns over his last four games (with at least one TD in every game).
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