LSU begins a very tough stretch of important games when the Tigers visit Nashville on Saturday, October 18, to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores.
My early LSU vs Vanderbilt predictions expect a fresh Commodores side to start the Tigers' run off on a sour note.
Find out why in my college football picks below.
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LSU vs Vanderbilt predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early LSU vs Vanderbilt spread pick: Vanderbilt -2.5
Vanderbilt ranks 89th in quality drive rate allowed on defense, but that shouldn’t be an issue for the Commodores. That’s because LSU is one of the worst teams in college football at actually doing anything when the Tigers achieve one.
LSU ranks 124th in points per quality drive, partly because the run game is nearly non-existent. The Tigers are 125th in rushing success rate, which has their third downs typically sitting at almost eight yards to gain on average.
Turnovers have also been a huge problem. The Tigers coughed it up twice inside the five-yard line this weekend against South Carolina, not to mention a late field goal where they had first and goal from the one-yard line.
Vanderbilt has struggled at times to get off the field on third down, due to issues defending the pass — see the Alabama game for an example — but LSU’s passing consistency is nowhere near what the Tide possesses.
LSU recently played Mississippi, who has shown similar struggles on third down. The result, on the road, was a defeat in which the Tigers converted on just two of 11 such plays.
Vanderbilt’s offense is better than what the Rebels have shown this season, and Diego Pavia’s dual-threat playmaking creates serious personnel issues for the Tigers.
The Commodores rank 11th in available yards gained and EPA/pass, and rank Top 10 in terms of rushing success rate and EPA, as well as early-down success.
Vandy also easily handled the same South Carolina squad on the road that LSU struggled to get past at home. I’ll take the well-rested home team laying less than a field goal here.
Early LSU vs Vanderbilt total pick: Under 48.5
The early line movement on this total has been interesting. After opening at 47.5, it dropped to 44.5 on Sunday morning. It was quickly bet back up to 48.5, which has me leaning Under here.
It starts with that LSU scoring issue. The Tigers haven’t topped 20 points in any of their four games against power conference foes, despite playing against Ole Miss or South Carolina — neither of whom have put up particularly strong metrics.
There’s also the issue of LSU’s defense slowing down the Vanderbilt offense. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t see the Tigers stopping the Commodores enough to get the win.
But LSU’s defense does rank Top 20 in quality drive rate and points per quality drive, as well as EPA/play against both the run and pass. The Commodores have also stalled out drives on their own at times with costly penalties.
Vanderbilt’s up-tempo style will eventually wear down the LSU defense, allowing for points in the second half. I don’t see it turning into a shootout by any means.
This game has the feel of a 24-20 type win for the Commodores, both of which would cash on the Under.
LSU vs Vanderbilt odds
- LSU vs. Vanderbilt spread: Vanderbilt -2.5
- LSU vs. Vanderbilt moneyline: LSU +110, Vanderbilt -122
- LSU vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch LSU vs Vanderbilt
- LSU vs. Vanderbilt matchup
- Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- City: Nashville
- Venue: FirstBank Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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