LSU and Mississippi greet us in what appears to be an entertaining matchup.
Both teams come into this matchup undefeated, but only one will leave that way.
Here are the three best college football props for LSU vs. Mississippi on Saturday, September 27.
LSU vs Mississippi props for Week 5
Caden Durham anytime touchdown (-130)
Trinidad Chambliss under 260.5 passing yards (-114)- Zavion Thomas anytime touchdown (+290)
Prop bet #1: Caden Durham anytime touchdown
I've written about the Mississippi Rebels every week this season and have come away with a familiar refrain: the rushing defense isn't an SEC-caliber rushing defense.
They mostly held Tulane in check last week and quickly overwhelmed them on the scoreboard, which caused the Wave to abandon their rushing attack early. However, even with that happening, the Rebels' rushing defense has dropped from an EPA perspective, ranking 123rd nationally.
Against the LSU Tigers, that'll be a problem. The Tigers' rushing attack overall has been relatively average, but their lead back, Caden Durham, has been efficient so far. He'll come into this game with a strong 4.1 yards per carry, and I think he can lean on that strength to find paydirt.
Prop bet #2: Trinidad Chambliss under 260.5 passing yards
I projected this number at 240.5, so I see a significant edge here, and it's my favorite prop in the game. Trinidad Chambliss took the reins from Austin Simmons after Simmons was injured earlier this season. At the time, it appeared the move would be temporary, but things changed, and since then, Chambliss has been strong, earning him the chance to start here despite Simmons being available for the game.
He'll come into this game having thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back starts. It's been eye-opening, but this is a step too far. The LSU defense has faced some solid competition already this season, and the analytics have been impressed. Across the board, they fit the profile of an elite unit, with their ability to limit explosiveness being their strongest suit.
They have an opportunity to frustrate the young quarterback, who may eventually be forcing throws by the end of the night.
Prop bet #3: Zavion Thomas anytime touchdown
Zavion Thomas has really started to shine, making a price point of +290 too hard to pass up. He'll enter this game with back-to-back touchdowns against Florida and Southeastern Louisiana. I like him to make it three for one reason: his ability to make the explosive play.
The Rebels' secondary has been pretty solid this season, but they have struggled to limit big plays against high-end competition. Coming into this game, they are in the bottom 30th percentile of college football in explosiveness allowed. There's not a player on the field who has been as explosive as Thomas this season.
He'll lead all pass-catchers on the field in yards per touch when he suits up Saturday; I'd play this to +220.
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