The Louisville Cardinals opened the season with a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Syracuse Orange in the Carrier Dome. And now they’ll have to deal with a second straight hostile environment as they head to the rockin’ Bounce House to take on the UCF Knights.
UCF handled FCS South Carolina State in its opener and covered the 43.5-point spread in the process, but is Louisville not getting enough respect here? I think so, particularly when one team has one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in college football in Malik Cunningham.
Read our college football betting picks and predictions for Louisville vs. UCF to find out more.
Louisville vs UCF best odds
Louisville vs UCF picks and predictions
Louisville didn’t just stumble out of the gates in Week 1, it fell flat on its face. Quarterback Malik Cunningham couldn’t find his rhythm while throwing a pair of picks, then the Cardinals were treated to the Sean Tucker experience (get ready for that on Sundays next year), combining for 183 total yards and two scores.
The final result was an embarrassing 31-7 loss in a game Louisville entered as 5.5-point road favorites.
Meanwhile, it was the Knights who actually had the impressive dual-threat quarterback in Week 1 as John Rhys Plumlee showed out in his UCF debut. The Mississippi transfer went 20-for-31 for 308 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while adding another 86 yards and a score on the ground.
Yes, Louisville now must travel to the boisterous Bounce House in Orlando but making the Cardinals 6.5-point underdogs in this road game is an overreaction to one week of results.
Cunningham is much better than he showed last week. The senior signal caller threw for 2,941 yards, completing 62% of his passes with 19 touchdowns while rushing for another 1,031 yards and another 20 scores on the ground.
Plus, the turnovers from Cunningham were uncharacteristic from him after throwing just six picks all of last season.
Now, you can’t take much away from UCF’s dismantling of an FCS opponent, but it should be noted that the Knights ranked 88th in rushing yards allowed per game and 78th in rushing yards allowed per attempt last season. On top of that, they must replace four starters from last year’s front seven including first-team All-AAC defensive end Big Kat Bryant who has moved on to the NFL.
It also can’t be forgotten that the Cardinals beat the Knights 42-35 in Louisville last season where Cunningham threw for 265 yards and a touchdown while rushing for another 99 yards and two scores, and that was going against what I feel was a better quarterback in Dillon Gabriel.
Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield will no doubt have his team better prepared to play this game after last week’s humbling defeat. I have this game with the Knights closer to -3.5 or -4, so I’ll happily take the 6.5 points.
My best bet: Louisville +6.5 (-110 at Caesars)
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 college football season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Louisville Cardinals + St. Louis Cardinals + Baltimore Orioles all to win BOOSTED to +675 at Caesars! Bet Now
B) Over 124.5 combined points for Louisville/UCF and Boise State/New Mexico BOOSTED to +285 at Unibet! Bet Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of College football promo codes for 2022.
Louisville vs UCF betting preview
Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
We’ve already talked about this spread at length. And as noted, I have UCF favored by a little more than a field goal for this matchup. So, I was a little surprised when this line hit the board with the Knights at -5.5 and then quickly move to 6.5.
Yes, this game is at the Bounce House. Yes, Louisville looked bad in Week 1, and, yes, UCF looked great, but you really can’t take much away from a victory over an FCS opponent. Plumlee played great in that game, but it really doesn’t tell us about how he will play against a Power Five team. In fact, during his time at Mississippi, Plumlee completed just 53.8% of his passes for a meager 6.2 yards per attempt.
So, I will once again tell anyone who will listen: This line is an overreaction to some Week 1 games. Satterfield is a good coach who will have his team prepared to bounce back.
On top of that, UCF was not a great bet under Gus Malzahn when they were notable favorites, with the Knights going 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games when favored by 6.5 points or more.
Over/Under analysis
This matchup gets a reasonably high total of 61.5 and it’s easy to see why.
UCF put up 56 points in Week 1, even if it was an FCS opponent, the Knights still did it and this was a team that averaged 31.9 points per game a season ago. This is also a run-first offense under Malzhan and while Isaiah Bowers isn’t Sean Tucker, he isn’t too far off. And the Knights just saw Syracuse average 5.2 yards per carry against the Cardinals last week.
Meanwhile, even though Louisville only managed seven points last week, the Cardinals actually had five possessions that ended up inside the Syracuse 40 and only managed to score once. So, the turnovers really cost them.
Behind Cunningham, the Cardinals were a team that averaged 31.6 points per game a season ago and put up 42 in last year’s matchup with the Knights. I don’t have a strong feel for the total but would lean towards the Over.
Louisville vs UCF game info
• Location: Bounce House, Orlando, FL
• Date: Friday, September 9, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Louisville vs UCF key injuries
Find our latest College football injury reports.
Louisville vs UCF weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Louisville vs UCF betting trend to know
UCF is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when favored by 6.5 or more points. Find more NCAA betting trends for Louisville vs. UCF.
