The 2025 version of Farmageddon takes place on Irish soil, as Iowa State and Kansas State meet in Dublin for an early Big 12 showdown.
Headlined by Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson, here are my Iowa State vs. Kansas State prop picks for Saturday, August 23.
Iowa State vs Kansas State props for Week 0
Johnson o51.5 rushing yards (-114)
Burkle o16.5 receiving yards (ODDS)- Sowell longest reception o23.5 yards (ODDS)
Prop bet #1: Avery Johnson Over 51.5 rushing yards (-114 AT FANDUEL)
In 11 games last season against Power 4 opponents, Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson rushed for 52+ yards on seven occasions. That includes a 64-yard day against Iowa State on 13 carries.
And with DJ Giddens gone, there is plenty of offense to be replaced in the ground game. While Dylan Edwards and Joe Jackson will be relied upon to move the ball, I expect Johnson to make plays with his legs against Iowa State.
The Cyclone defense struggled to contain big plays last season in the ground game. Iowa State allowed 81 runs of 10+ yards, the third-most of any P4 school and the 10th most nationally. Opponents also broke off an average of nearly two runs a game that went for 20+ yards.
With Iowa State replacing all three starters on the defensive line, there will be some growing pains up front. Kansas State also must replace two All-Big 12 starters on the offensive line, which means we may see Johnson scrambling a bit more.
The Cyclones managed fewer than 20 sacks last season. That makes it more likely that Johnson can prevent negative plays when he runs, and getting 52+ rushing yards is extremely attainable.
Prop bet #2: Gabe Burkle Over 16.5 receiving yards (-114 AT FANDUEL)
Matt Campbell has long been a fan of having multiple tight ends on the field, but last year, he rightly abandoned that philosophy with Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins being such dangerous weapons on the outside.
This time around, Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle allow him to utilize multiple tight ends while still giving Rocco Becht a pair of playmakers in the passing game.
Higgins didn’t participate in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, and Burkle took advantage. He was second in targets on the day behind Noel, catching four passes for 54 yards against Miami.
Burkle was reliable down the stretch for the Cyclones, as he topped 20 yards receiving in six of their last seven games with 24 catches in that span.
Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser has said he’s going to utilize their tight end room to cause mismatch issues for defenses, and both the 6-foot-7 Brahmer and 6-foot-6 Burkle present coverage nightmares. Although Burkle had just one catch against the Wildcats last season, he picked up 15 yards.
Kansas State has a lot of question marks in its secondary coming into this game, and a two-TE set would likely slow down some of the pass-rushing ability possessed by its front line.
I expect Burkle to have multiple targets, and he should clear the 17-yard floor easily.
Prop bet #3: Chase Sowell longest reception Over 23.5 yards (-122 AT FANDUEL)
Chase Sowell might be just the next big-play receiver for the Cyclones.
Despite missing multiple games due to injury, the 6-foot-3 wideout racked up 1,300 receiving yards on just 81 catches over the last two seasons at East Carolina.
In each of his last seven games in 2024, Sowell had at least one catch of 37 yards. He even had a stretch of three games where he caught passes of at least 50 yards.
Kansas State is replacing multiple starters from a defense that coughed up 40 completions of 20+ yards a season ago, and 123 catches that went for at least 10 yards. Only 27 teams in college football allowed more 10+ yard gains through the air.
Sowell has drawn multiple comparisons to Higgins from the Iowa State coaching staff due to his ability to high-point the ball, and he is expected to get the start at the X-receiver position. That means he will be one of the focal points on play-action passes from Becht, which should get a boost from a renewed emphasis on running the ball.
With the issues at the back end for the Wildcats, I expect to see an explosive play from Sowell before the game is over.
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