Indiana vs Penn State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Nittany Lions Run All Over Hoosiers

Despite Penn State's poor offensive showing last week against Ohio State, we expect James Franklin's program to run up the score in Week 9 when they take on a porous Hoosiers defense. Read more in our Indiana vs. Penn State betting picks.

Oct 28, 2023 • 08:11 ET • 4 min read
Nicholas Singleton Penn State Nittany Lions NCAAF
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Questions are flying about whether James Franklin will ever have Penn State truly competing with the big boys of the Big Ten after the Nittany Lions fell on their face against Ohio State last week. Luckily for them, there won’t be any spiraling as a result of the loss with a putrid Indiana program coming to State College.

Penn State remains a Top 10 team in college football and lost by just one score to the Buckeyes, while Indiana has only managed wins over FCS Indiana State and a 1-7 Akron team they needed overtime to beat. The college football odds are expecting a fireworks display from the Nittany Lions and so am I.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college football picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Penn State on October 28.

Indiana vs Penn State best odds

Indiana vs Penn State picks and predictions

It’s a pick your poison of Penn State dominance this week, with both the Over 46 line and the Nittany Lions to cover the 32-point spread being incredibly tantalizing. While 32 is a substantial margin, and so is 46 when factoring in the Hoosiers' offense, Penn State possesses the firepower to achieve both.

What makes the difference here is how bad Indiana has been on defense this season. The Hoosiers rank 105th in EPA per play, 107th in EPA per pass, and 93rd in EPA per rush.

Even with head coach Tom Allen’s defensive background, the Hoosiers are giving up 29.3 points per game while allowing 366.1 yards. Their saving grace has been their pass defense, surrendering only 191.7 yards per game, but that’s a result of how easily teams are running on them.

The Hoosiers have seen the seventh least pass attempts against them this season in the Power Five (182), with teams averaging just 26 per game. Indiana gives up leads and teams get away from needing to throw the football. When opponents do throw it, they’re averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, tied for 22nd most in the Power Five.

The easiest path for Penn State to beat up on the Hoosiers and ensure they hit the Over is by sticking to the ground game. Indiana is giving up 174.4 rushing yards per game, fourth most in the Power Five.

This lends well to Penn State being at its best when it leans on the offensive line to pave the way for its talented running backs.

With future top-five pick Olu Fashanu at left tackle and star sophomores Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen in the backfield, the Nittany Lions have gashed teams to the tune of 181.3 rushing yards per game and 2.4 rushing touchdowns per game.

Penn State has averaged 39.7 points per game behind its physical running attack and efficient passing game. While sophomore quarterback Drew Allar has yet to put it all together, he doesn’t turn the ball over and does a good job getting it in the hands of his playmakers.

While they’re not a record-breaking offense, Penn State ranks 34th in EPA per play on offense, 44th in EPA per pass, and 29th in EPA per rush. Singleton and Allen — who have combined for 811 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns this season — should be running wild on Saturday.

In seven games this season, Allar has thrown 13 touchdowns with zero interceptions while adding another three scores on the ground. While the Nittany Lions offense didn't fare well against Ohio State, it did against the non-premier Power Five talent they’ve played like West Virginia, Illinois, Iowa, and Northwestern.

Indiana has the fewest wins of all those programs for a reason and has allowed 42.3 points per game in its last three Big Ten games.

My best bet: Over 46 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

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Indiana vs Penn State same-game parlay

Over 45.5 (-120)

Penn State -32.5 (+100)

Nicholas Singelton anytime touchdown (-250)

If this Over is going to hit, it’s because Penn State has put up enough points to cover the spread — something Indiana has only done once in a Big Ten game this season. The Hoosiers are 0-4 in the Big Ten and are losing by an average of 27 points. 

Of course, if Penn State is scoring and covering, it’s thanks to its nasty running back duo of Singleton and Allen. A former five-star recruit, Singleton is shaping up to be the next great Penn State running back and he’s been a touchdown machine since he got on campus.

In 20 games with the Nittany Lions, Singleton has exactly 20 touchdowns. He’s in a great position to keep that pace considering that Indiana has already allowed 14 rushing TDs in seven games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Indiana vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis

This game opened with Penn State as a heavy 28-point favorite and has continued to shift in its direction, with most books having the Nittany Lions listed at either -31.5 or -32.5.

Few teams have been as dominant against the spread this season as Penn State, who hold a 6-1 record against it. The loss to Ohio State as four-point dogs was the only time Franklin’s team hasn’t covered this season.

While Indiana has been bad, the Hoosiers have been better at covering the spread than winning games. They’re 3-4 ATS but haven’t covered in their last three Big Ten games… including when they were six-point dogs against Rutgers last week.

The game total for this one opened at 44.5 and has shifted up slightly to between 45.5 and 46, depending on the book.

Penn State has hit the Over all four times this season when the program has been favored by more than 20 points. Shockingly, Indiana is one of the best teams in the country when betting the game total Over, laregly thanks to that shaky defense. The Hoosiers are 5-2 to the Over and have only failed to exceed it when the O/U was above 50. 

Indiana vs Penn State betting trend to know

Indiana has hit the game total Over in eight of its last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Indiana vs Penn State.

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Indiana vs Penn State game info

Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
Date: Saturday, October 28, 2023
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET

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