Georgia is rarely favored so heavily in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and its spread this year is more a compliment to the Bulldogs than a knock on Florida. The Gators already nearly pulled off one massive upset, coming a two-point conversion attempt away from topping Alabama last month.
Beating the Bulldogs in Jacksonville would be an even bigger surprise at this point, but Florida may have the offensive weapons needed to challenge Georgia’s pristine defense — if Gators head coach Dan Mullen will play them, one in particular.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Georgia Bulldogs vs Florida Gators on October 30.
Georgia vs Florida odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Summer lookahead lines set Georgia as a 6.5-point favorite, but obviously the Bulldogs have exceeded expectations thus far this season, raising this line to two touchdowns when it opened anew on Sunday. Nearly every book flirted with giving Georgia the hook, touching -14.5 for a few hours early in the week, but they all settled back down at -14.0.
The total never moved much this week, opening at 50.5 and knocking around between 50.0 and 51.0 before settling at 51.0 by week’s end.
Georgia vs Florida picks
Picks made on 10/29/2021 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Georgia vs Florida game info
• Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
• Date: Saturday, October 30, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Georgia vs Florida betting preview
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Georgia: Justin Robinson WR (Questionable), JT Daniels QB (Questionable), Dominick Blaylock WR (Out), Kenny McIntosh RB (Questionable), Kendall Milton RB (Out), Rian Davis LB (Questionable), Julian Rochester DL (Questionable), Jalen Kimber CB (Questionable), Christopher Smith DB (Questionable), Ameer Speed DB (Questionable), Arian Smith WR (Out)
Florida: Trent Whittemore WR (Questionable), Ethan White OL (Questionable), Jean Delance OL (Questionable), Ventrell Miller LB (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over has hit in the last four games in which Florida has been an underdog, a stretch that reaches back to its 2020 meeting with Georgia. Those have not been razor-thin margins, either. Those four Overs have cashed by an average of more than 13 points. Find more NCAA betting trends for Georgia vs. Florida.
Georgia vs Florida predictions
Georgia -14.0 (-110)
Why get in front of a train? Why voluntarily pick against the Bulldogs?
Sure, they have failed to cover the spread twice this year, but both of those ATS losses came by only 4.5 points as the results of garbage-time touchdowns. Most notably, Kentucky needed to call a timeout with mere ticks left on the clock to get across the goal line and make its backers happy.
There will be no such generous garbage time against the Gators. This is a rival. Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart knows better than to acquiesce to Florida.
Furthermore, this is the tightest spread Georgia has met this season since its opening win at Clemson as a three-point underdog. When up four scores, an otherwise-meaningless touchdown to cover the spread may not be noticed all that much, even more so when up five scores and the opponent is hapless South Carolina.
By those standards, winning by two touchdowns against Florida will be considered close. Smart and the vaunted Bulldogs defense will not have the same indifference toward a late touchdown, particularly not in front of the rowdy Jacksonville crowd.
This may not be the most analytical of handicaps, but how much deep insight is needed when considering a train?
Over 51.0 (-110)
This number was set with the expectations that Florida will play Emory Jones at quarterback all afternoon and Georgia will stick with Stetson Bennett. But what if they don’t?
Gators freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson has already cast some doubt on his future in Gainesville, perhaps the shove Mullen needed to play the talented dual-threat in the biggest game of Florida’s season. Richardson represents a more explosive offense than Jones, to be blunt, especially against the Bulldogs’ aggressive defense. Jones has matched 10 passing touchdowns with nine interceptions while averaging just 5.81 yards per carry. Replace that, even for only a quarter’s worth of drives, with Richardson’s 12.43 yards per carry, and Florida could suddenly put up more points than expected.
Meanwhile, practice reports have offered a touch more optimism about Georgia quarterback JT Daniels this week. His last injury has kept him sidelined for the last three weeks, but those were also three expected and realized blowouts.
Bennett has found a groove with the Bulldogs. By no means has he had the fraught season Jones sometimes has, but Daniels is still likely a more viable playoff quarterback. Using him to put Florida on its heels would also elevate this score.
If one of those backup quarterbacks gets a chance Saturday afternoon, that will push this Over the total. If both do, it could become an unexpected shootout.
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