The Georgia Bulldogs are out for revenge in the SEC title game. The Alabama Crimson Tide handed the Bulldogs their only loss of the season.
Since then, Georgia has won eight in a row, while the Crimson Tide have stumbled a bit down the stretch. While that has made the Dawgs the favorites in this conference championship, I think that has created a betting opportunity with Bama. So, I’ve built a championship-worthy SGP that takes advantage of that.
And for even more college football picks for the SEC Championship, check out my Georgia vs. Alabama predictions.
Our best Georgia vs Alabama SGP for SEC Championship
Not only will the Georgia Bulldogs be able to avenge its only loss of the season, but also earn their first-ever win over the Alabama Crimson Tide in this conference championship game.
Alabama won that game 24-21 as 2.5-point underdogs with Ty Simpson leading the way, throwing for 276 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Since then, Georgia has rattled off eight wins in a row. But they haven’t all been pretty, with some close calls against Mississippi and Florida. And while the defense has looked better as the season has gone along, the theme of that Alabama game has run true much of the year.
Good passers can move the ball on this Georgia defense and the Bulldogs enter this game ranked 55th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
So, the question is why is Alabama still a 2.5-point underdog with SEC title game being on a neutral (for the most part) site?
The answer is recency bias. Georgia has won eight in a row. While Alabama has stumbled down the stretch. Causal observers will say they needed some luck to win the Iron Bowl. But it was a rivalry game on the road. Things get weird in those spots, and the Tide came out on top.
Then there is the loss to Oklahoma. The Tide massively outgained the Sooners, putting up big numbers against arguably the best defense in the country and could have easily won a game they lost 23-21.
I believe Alabama is getting undervalued here and this game should be closer to a pick’em, so give me the Tide to win outright on the moneyline.
Next up, everyone knows what Ryan Williams can do, but having guys like Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton out there as well makes the Tide really dangerous, and it’s Horton I want to focus on.
Horton was a red zone machine for Simpson early in the season, scoring a touchdown in five of Alabama’s first seven games. Then he went silent for a while before busting out in the Iron Bowl grabbing three touchdowns. I like the value for Horton to find the end zone in the SEC title game.
Now, while I like Alabama to win, I still think this game will be close, and Gunner Stockton has stepped up for Georgia when they’ve needed him to.
Stockton has orchestrated two massive comebacks for the Bulldogs this season against Tennessee and Mississippi and has thrown multiple touchdowns six times this season, including four of his last six games overall. He’ll do it again here when his team needs him the most.
Note if there is an applicable parlay boost available.
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