Georgia Southern vs Louisiana Odds, Picks and Predictions: Two-Way Troubles for Offenses

Georgia Southern's season has been trending up, and Louisiana can't exactly say the same. As the Ragin' Cajuns aim to get their season back on track, they could struggle to put up points in Week 11, as our college football picks explain.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Nov 10, 2022 • 16:33 ET • 4 min read
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The Georgia Southern Eagles and Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns will meet tonight for a conference affair.

The Eagles sent shockwaves across the College Football world when they upset Nebraska in Lincoln two months ago. Since then, Georgia Southern has gone 4-3 and will arrive at this matchup as winners of two of their last three.

But while the Eagles' season appears to be trending upwards, Louisiana Lafayette's is going in the other direction. They've lost two straight and are now under .500 on the season. 

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Lafayette.

Georgia Southern vs Louisiana best odds

Georgia Southern vs Louisiana picks and predictions

Georgia Southern is one win away from bowl eligibility and will get it here. However, there are better ways to attack this game. The Under is the most appealing, and that will be my best bet.

The Eagles of Georgia Southern have gone from a run-heavy offense a season ago to a more pass-happy one this year. They ranked first in passes of over 10+ yards in the Sun Belt, tied for second in 20+ yards, and third in 30+ yards. That's a long way to say that they have managed to find success at different yardages through the air.

The problem for them in this matchup is that they'll be facing one of the better passing defenses they've seen. Louisiana Lafayette's defense ranks just outside the Top 25 in passing success defense. As a result, it’s tied for third overall in the Sun Belt in passing defense, allowing just 219 yards per game.

One of the things that we're seeking for an Under is if one team can shut down the other’s main point of attack. We can check that off the list here. The Eagles have yet to see a passing defense in their conference that’s this stiff, at least statistically. So, I expect them to have plenty of issues, especially when you consider Georgia Southern will have a QB under center that has tossed 13 interceptions.

On the other side of the ball, the Lafayette offense has been middling lately, ranking in the bottom half of College Football in finishing drives, and in the bottom third in passing success. On the rushing front, the Cajuns scored just four rushing touchdowns while sitting at the bottom of the conference in YPC. Georgia Southern's defense isn't exactly a world-beater, and, in fact, has been gashed so far, allowing over 480 yards per game.

But it's not so much about their defense as the ineptness of the Ragin Cajuns' offense. We're talking about a team that ranks second to last in the Sun Belt in red-zone scoring. What's an Under’s best friend? Long drives that stall out with field goals. I believe we'll see a good amount of that. 

One of these teams will be forced to turn away from what they want to do the most and run the ball. The other will try to jumpstart an offense that hasn't been good throughout the season by running. Aside from these teams having issues finishing drives (given their matchups), we can also be assured that the clock will run a reasonable amount.

That's just one more sign that makes the Under look like the right side. This number should be somewhere in the low 50s. We have a very nice edge on the current number. 

My best bet: Under 61.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Georgia Southern vs Louisiana spread analysis

As I said at the onset, I expect Georgia Southern to win this game. In a vacuum, the Eagles are a more well-rounded team. But more than that, they have the offensive weapons that should eventually wear down the Cajuns. It's an offense with four receivers who have collected 35 or more catches, including Khaleb Hood's 60 receptions on the season. So, even though I believe the Lafayette defense is strong, versatility will eventually be the difference. 

I need to see a stronger edge to make a pregame bet. Louisiana may come out with some added juice being at home and look to avenge its current two-game losing streak. That gives us an opening for some in-game wagering: I will be looking for Georgia Southern at plus money early on if they go down. I'll stay away from this one if I don't get that. 

Georgia Southern vs Louisiana Over/Under analysis

I'm a massive fan of the Under in this one. We have too many dynamics to ignore. One of my favorites is that the Louisiana Lafayette offense isn't good in the red zone: It ranked second-to-last in the conference at finishing drives. However, it’s also excellent at stopping teams from finishing drives, ranking 15th in the country in that metric. That sets up a recipe for the clock running and field goals being kicked. I love that as an Under bettor. 

This total opened up at 58.5 virtually everywhere and was brought up around where it sits now. Much of that is based on buy-in on the Georgia Southern prolific passing offense. However, bettors have not taken enough time to analyze how good the passing defense they’re facing is. The Under is 10-1 in the last 11 Ragin' Cajun games after a loss. I like that to continue here. 

Georgia Southern vs Louisiana betting trend to know

The Under is 10-1 in the last 11 Louisiana Lafayette games following a loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana.

Georgia Southern vs Louisiana game info

Location: Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA
Date: Thursday, November 10, 2022
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET

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Georgia Southern vs Louisiana weather

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