The biggest question surrounding this Miami Hurricanes team heading into this season was what version of Carson Beck would they get?
Because if Beck looked like he did back in 2023, then The U might be back, and early returns have been very promising. Things have not been as smooth sailing for the Florida Gators.
My early Florida vs. Miami predictions and college football picks explain why the Gators will go belly up in this rivalry on Saturday, September 20.
Florida vs Miami predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Florida vs Miami spread pick: Miami -7.5
It looks like the Miami Hurricanes are getting the best version of Carson Beck. And with the way the rest of the Canes roster is built, that puts them in the national championship conversation.
Beck has looked fantastic in leading The U to a 3-0 start, which includes an impressive season-opening win over Notre Dame. Beck has 812 yards while completing nearly 80% of his passes with seven touchdowns.
But what makes Miami really dangerous is the trenches. The Hurricanes have tons of NFL talent on both the offensive and defensive lines. The defensive front is particularly scary with potential Top 10 pick Rueben Bain Jr. leading the way.
Miami is also coming off a 49-12 beatdown of USF, which brings us to the Florida Gators.
This season was supposed to be different, but it went off the rails quickly with a stunning 18-16 loss to those same USF Bulls in the Swamp. They followed that up with another lackluster performance vs. LSU at Death Valley.
DJ Lagway has struggled, throwing more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (five), but he also hasn’t gotten a ton of support, and the team has been plagued by undisciplined play.
Miami looks like one of the best teams in the country. Florida is talented but looks lost. The Gators need to prove it before you can back them in a spot like this.
Early Florida vs Miami total pick: Under 51.5
Miami’s defensive line is a problem. With Bain, Akheem Mesidor, and an overall glut of talent, this line is a force. Miami ranks 28th in defensive success rate and has allowed just 39 points over its first three games.
Now the Hurricanes go against a Florida offense that looks like a mess and has scored 26 points in the last two games while averaging just 5.5 yards per play.
Meanwhile, despite the issues that have plagued the Gators, the team's strength is still its defense. The Gators rank 10th in defensive success rate through three games this season and, like the Hurricanes, have a very strong defensive line led by tackle Caleb Banks.
Florida’s strong defense and slumping offense mean the Gators have cashed the Under in three straight games to start the season, and I don’t expect them to suddenly have a breakthrough against this talented Canes defense.
Florida vs Miami odds
- Florida vs. Miami spread: Miami -7.5
- Florida vs. Miami moneyline: Florida +215, Miami -265
- Florida vs. Miami Over/Under: 51.5
How to watch Florida vs Miami
- Florida vs. Miami matchup
- Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Miami Gardens, FL
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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