Florida State will meet NC State on Friday night, with both teams looking to secure bowl eligibility.
Take a look at my early Florida State vs. NC State predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 21.
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Florida State vs NC State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Florida State vs NC State spread pick: Florida State -4.5
In a conference that has featured little consistency, the NC State Wolfpack have had it more than others. The Wolfpack’s offense (until last week) has been borderline elite, while the defense has been a disaster. Unfortunately, this has not been much of a winning recipe, and I do not think that will change.
The Florida State Seminoles will score a ton. That's not saying much because everyone pretty much does against NC State.
Its defense has given up tons of big plays through the air. It ranks in the Bottom 35% of college football in passing explosives allowed while also ranking 125th nationally in EPA allowed per dropback. Seminoles quarterback Thomas Castellanos is more than capable of taking advantage of that.
Florida State should have some success stopping them, too, though.
NC State wants to throw the ball, and as mentioned, it has been really strong this season when doing that, especially from an efficiency standpoint, ranking 19th nationally in EPA per dropback. The problem is that it has been pretty dependent on explosives, and the Noles have been one of the best defenses in the country at limiting pass explosives. I think this should be closer to -6.
Early Florida State vs NC State total pick: Under 61.5
This is quite a high number, and while I expect there to be plenty of points, I'm not sure it will be this many. It fits with the logic of our spread position.
NC State is going to be forced to run the ball against a very stingy passing defense. With that comes a running clock and the expectation that there will be some plays made in the backfield by Florida State. The Noles have been about average when it comes to creating havoc, but the bigger issue is that the Wolfpack have allowed tons of it when it has run the ball.
On the other side of the ball, we may see Florida State throw a few quick punches through the air (for reasons suggested above). However, once it establishes a lead, I think we see things shift to a run-heavy approach as it salts away the game.
Florida State vs NC State odds
- Florida State vs. NC State spread: NC State +4.5
- Florida State vs. NC State moneyline: Florida State -200, NC State +170
- Florida State vs. NC State Over/Under: 61.5
How to watch Florida State vs NC State
- Florida State vs. NC State matchup
- Date: Friday, November 21, 2025, 8:00 p.m. ET
- City: Raleigh, NC
- Venue: Carter-Finley Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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