Florida State vs Miami (FL) Picks & Props
FSU vs MIA Picks
NCAAF Picks
Cooper Barkate should see a bump in expectations after WR3 Joshua Moore was lost for the season with an upper body injury. The market isn't reflecting that, so it's time to buy the Miami wideout against a poor Florida State secondary ranking 109th in EPA per pass allowed.
o38.5 Team Total (-116)
The Miami Hurricanes are averaging 42.8 ppg against FBS competition this year, while the Florida State Seminoles have given up an average of 47.0 points in their two road games on the season. The Florida State defense has absolutely no hope of containing Darian Mensah and company on Saturday. I'm backing the Over on Miami's total at up to 40.5 points.
o55.5 (-116)
The Miami Hurricanes have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, averaging 8.2 yards per play and completing an incredible 83% of its passes. That lines up against a Florida State Seminoles defense ranking outside the top 100 in nearly all major metrics, including yards allowed per play (6.1) and opposing quarterback rating (140.9). With FSU having to turn this into a shootout to have any chance of remaining competitive, the Over is the play.
FSU +21.5 (-116)
The Florida State Seminoles have shown a willingness to push the pace and go into shootouts even in a losing effort, and that has already led to relatively close losses to the likes of the Alabama Crimson Tide and SMU Mustangs. I see that approach as having some bite against a Miami Hurricanes defense that ranks just 27th in the nation in adjusted EPA allowed per play -- a surprisingly mundane number for a team with outstanding raw defensive numbers. I'm taking Florida State to cover as long as the number is 21.5 points or more.
My three picks above tell a clear game story, and that's always what I like to see in a combo bet. I expect both offenses to dominate, so I'm happy to back the Over on both teams while pairing it with a bet on the Seminoles to cover a massive spread in this rivalry matchup.
FSU vs MIA Consensus Picks
41% picking Florida State
Total Picks FSU 179, MIA 253
FSU vs MIA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
FSU
A. Daniels
(QB)
o189.5 Passing Yards
215.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+25.6
DIFFERENCE
26.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Mensah
(QB)
o270.5 Passing Yards
280.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.8
DIFFERENCE
18.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MIA
J. Mallory
(RB)
o39.5 Rushing Yards
45.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
25.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
FSU
A. Daniels
(QB)
u35.5 Rushing Yards
29.97 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.5
DIFFERENCE
24.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
FSU
O. Kromah
(RB)
u57.5 Rushing Yards
56.53 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
11.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MIA
M. Fletcher Jr.
(RB)
o84.5 Rushing Yards
87.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
11.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FSU
J. Boggs
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
42.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.3
DIFFERENCE
26.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FSU
M. Danzy
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
52.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.4
DIFFERENCE
26.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
M. Toney
(WR)
o103.5 Receiving Yards
116.75 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.3
DIFFERENCE
25.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
E. Lofton
(TE)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
34.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.2
DIFFERENCE
25.29%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
M. Fletcher Jr.
(RB)
o6.5 Receiving Yards
10.39 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.9
DIFFERENCE
24.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
C. Barkate
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
77.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.9
DIFFERENCE
23.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Robinson
(WR)
u49.5 Receiving Yards
46.50 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.0
DIFFERENCE
19.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FSU
J. Boggs
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
12.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
D. Robinson
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
2.85 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
10.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
C. Barkate
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
0.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
M. Toney
(WR)
o7.5 Receptions
8.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
0.21%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 6-0 in Seminoles last 6 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-0 in Hurricanes last 6 games on grass.
Over is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games as a home underdog.
Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games following a bye week.
Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
ROI Trends
Check back shortly to see trends for each team.
FSU vs MIA Top User Picks
'fat italian' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-19.5)
fat italian is #10 on picking games that Florida State is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +2850 units on the season.
'emoney1973' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-21.5)
emoney1973 is #10 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'derekpderek' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-19.5)
derekpderek is #2 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.
'My2bills' is picking Florida State to cover (+21.5)
My2bills is #3 on picking games that Florida State is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'wordziplay' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-21.5)
wordziplay is #3 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (5-0-0) and +3950 units on the season.
'Sandsaver727' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-19.5)
Sandsaver727 is #5 on picking games that Florida State is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +2850 units on the season.
'vwebb57' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-21.5)
vwebb57 is #6 on picking games that Florida State is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +2850 units on the season.
'johnmartellejr' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-21.5)
johnmartellejr is #7 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +3450 units on the season.
'Wolfcjm' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-21.5)
Wolfcjm is #9 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.