The ACC has delivered plenty of entertainment this season, and this weekend was no exception. The results led to a Duke-Virginia matchup in the conference championship.
What awaits us here?
Take a look at my early Duke vs. Virginia predictions and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
Duke vs Virginia predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Early Duke vs Virginia spread pick: Virginia -3
I grabbed the Virginia Cavaliers early. Thankfully for the ACC, it should get the result that benefits the conference much more.
The Duke Blue Devils’ success this season has been built almost exclusively around quarterback Darian Mensah and the passing game. Unfortunately, that plays into one of Virginia's biggest strengths. This Cavs defense ranks Top 20 nationally in EPA/pass allowed and is a Top-15 unit overall, generating havoc while still keeping explosives in check.
Duke’s offense starts, on average, at its own 30 and already has to work against a secondary that allows just 41% passing success; those long fields get even longer. There’s a pretty reasonable path for UVA to regularly get Duke off schedule, which will impact them more significantly than it would other teams.
On the other side, Virginia does not need to be spectacular to cover this spread; simply being competent should be enough. Quarterback Chandler Morris has been steady and faces a Duke defense that struggles across the board: No. 130 in defensive EPA/play, No. 128 in success rate, and vulnerable against both the run and pass.
Running back Jaari Taylor should be effective on the ground, and efficient pass catcher Trell Harris gives Morris a consistent option. Given Virginia’s numerous advantages, the Cavaliers are in a strong position to cover the modest spread.
Early Duke vs Virginia total pick: Under 57.5
I’d lean Under 57.5. There’s an unquantifiable conversation about neither of these teams being really used to the stage, and how that will likely lead to a few early miscues, but outside of that, there are obvious ways you see the two offenses struggling.
Virginia is going to make Duke uncomfortable and get away from their regular offense. I’ve talked about it being one of the decisive factors in who wins the game, but it also comes up here. The Blue Devils will regularly face some issues against one of the better secondaries in the country. This makes them turn to an inefficient run game that likely struggles to find consistency and also bleeds the clock in the process.
On the other side, Virginia’s offense is more solid than explosive. Morris is fine, but the Cavs sit around the national average in EPA/play and success rate, which is pretty true to who they’ve been this season. Although I think UVA finds success against Duke, the Blue Devils do generate a ton of havoc.
Negative plays and behind-schedule downs are not ideal for an Over at a number this high.
Duke vs Virginia odds
- Duke vs. Virginia spread: Virginia -3
- Duke vs. Virginia moneyline: Duke +134, Virginia -162
- Duke vs. Virginia Over/Under: 57.5
How to watch Duke vs Virginia
- Duke vs. Virginia matchup
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025, 8:00 p.m. ET
- City: Charlotte, NC
- Venue: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
