Saturday night features the ACC Championship between the Virginia Cavaliers and Duke Blue Devils.
Virginia will look to finalize its spot in the College Football playoff, while Duke will look to add a whole bundle of chaos to the conversation.
Headlined by Chandler Morris, I've identified some nice value on the board with my favorite Virginia vs. Duke player props and college football picks for December 6.
Duke vs Virginia props for ACC Championship Game
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Nate Sheppard |
Anytime touchdown | -125 |
 Trell Harris |
Over 67.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Chandler Morris |
Over 229.5 passing yards | -114 |
Nate Sheppard anytime touchdown
Before diving in, I want to note that this line feels a little short.
It's not that I envision the Duke Blue Devils having some massive offensive day, but it's more of a product of the volume I'd expect Nate Sheppard to get around the red zone.
He's gotten the bulk of the carries overall this season, particularly near scoring areas, and there's no reason that should change here. Virginia's defense is sturdy overall, but far more exploitable on the ground than through the air.
The Virginia Cavaliers' defense has seen many an ACC team have success against them on the ground, which is why they rank in the 90s nationally in EPA allowed per rush.
In a game where the Blue Devils should still generate a few quality scoring chances, I see Sheppard as the most likely finisher, which makes this closer to a -150 fair number, so I'm happy to grab -125.
Trell Harris Over 67.5 receiving yards
Trell Harris is Virginia's featured receiver, and Virginia is expected to pass often against Duke's softer pass defense. I believe his target share and explosiveness make 67.5 yards a reasonable target.
Harris leads the team with 73 targets and 51 catches, nearly a quarter of Virginia's total attempts, and pairs that with one of the highest EPA per catch numbers on the team. That combination gives him multiple paths to a big night.
He can get there using regular chain-moving volume or by using an explosive or two. The explosives, in particular, stand out in this matchup.
Duke's defense is much softer versus the pass than the run, allowing a high EPA per dropback. Duke's capable offense should keep the Cavaliers throwing into the second half. With Harris as Chandler Morris's first read, the underlying numbers point toward him having a big day.
Chandler Morris Over 229.5 passing yards
Given Duke's vulnerable pass defense and the likelihood Virginia must throw, I project Chandler Morris has a strong chance to surpass this total, especially by targeting Harris downfield.b6
This essentially doubles down on our Trell Harris bet. Let's reiterate a few things.
The Duke passing defense is bad. You can pretty much pick any element and have some concerns, but the explosiveness allowed is particularly concerning. They rank in the bottom 9th percentile of such things.
Morris has to be licking his chops at that, having made some explosive plays throughout the season despite a below 50% success rate.
Secondly, I mentioned this in my early game prediction preview, but I think Duke can at least do enough to make Virginia chase points through an, albeit, inefficient run game, one that should have a really great path to scoring.
At the end of the day, I think this number is just a touch too low and would play to 234.5.
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