In a sport with only 12 scheduled data points, it can be perilous to say, “Do not overreact to just one game,”. But it is still a truth. No team is as good or as bad as its most recent performance.
That can be harder to remember than ever following Week 1. That most recent performance is 100% of what we have seen from all these teams. Of course we are prone to overreact.
Do not throw out all your preseason priors. Just because Cal beat up on Oregon State late Saturday night does not mean the Golden Bears are suddenly a quality ACC team.
More likely, Cal had a solid game plan that worked perfectly after a hot start, and the Beavers may be a bit worse than expected. Don’t worry, they should still win their conference.
If there's one thing to overreact to, it was Steve Sarkisian’s reticence at the goal line in Texas’s 14-7 loss at Ohio State. Frankly, the problem went beyond starting a third straight season with abysmal execution where it matters most.
College football Week 1 things you shouldn't overreact to
Do not overreact to Kansas State almost losing to North Dakota
The Week 0 game in Dublin has become one of sports' oddest traditions... this is its fourth year of consistency. The six previous teams combined to go 2-4 against the spread in their next games, including Notre Dame's 56-3 win as a 49-point favorite against FCS-level Tennessee State.
All due respect to the Tigers, but they were a far cry from the upper reaches of the FCS occupied by the likes of North Dakota, so a 1-4 ATS mark is more pertinent to this conversation.
For that matter, all five of those were favorites, and two of them lost outright.
Chalk it up to the experience of being in Dublin or to the sheer travel of getting there and back, or even to the advantage teams enjoy when they have film on their opponent from Week 0. Whatever the reason, teams more often than not struggle afterward.
Kansas State was without star running back Dylan Edwards, and the Wildcats' offensive line continues to find its footing. No FCS team from the Dakotas is the ideal opponent when your offensive line remains uncertain.
Douglas’ advice: Hold please. This will be stronger advice later on.
College football Week 1 things you definitely should react to
Do overreact to Texas’ red-zone struggles.
This problem goes back years. The Texas Longhorns simply cannot turn quality drives into touchdowns often enough. Anecdotally, it became apparent early enough in 2023 yours truly was yelling every week it would cost Texas.
Scoring only two touchdowns on seven quality possessions cost the Longhorns against Oklahoma. (Quality possession: A drive in which a team either scores an explosive touchdown or has a first-and-10 within the 40-yard line, the point at which it becomes more statistically likely than not that they will score points.)
Texas’ last five quality possessions that day yielded 16 points. That loss had been a long time coming.
In last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal, sure, the Longhorns scored two touchdowns on just three quality possessions. Does anyone remember what happened on the third? A chaotic play call led to a fumble return for a touchdown that sealed the win for Ohio State.
And on Saturday, against the Buckeyes again, Texas had three quality possessions and scored seven points.
Those may sound like hand-picked examples, but look at the last two years of stats: In 2023, Texas ranked No. 6 in the country in frequency of quality possessions, but scored only 3.2 points per such possession, No. 107 in the country.
In 2024, Texas ranked No. 15 in the country in frequency of quality possessions, but scored only 3.96 points per such posses sion, No. 39 in the country.
The Longhorns improved last year and still ranked No. 39 in efficiency where it matters most.
For two years, the world ascribed this flaw to Quinn Ewers. But perhaps it is a Steve Sarkisian failure. Most concerning, he did not go for two when Texas scored to cut the lead to one possession.
The logic is pretty simple: when trailing 14-6 and about to attempt a PAT, instead go for two. It increases your chances of winning the game.
But Sarkisian did not, quite possibly a nod he knows he has a crippling short-yardage problem.
Douglas' advice: Texas might not be in another game with a spread within one score until it heads to Georgia on Nov. 15. But if the Longhorns have not yet found ruthless efficiency where it matters most, do not trust them in any game with a spread within one score.
Do overreact to Army’s loss to Tarleton State.
To pull from an article last week with a preseason win total bet on every one of the 136 FBS teams, “Service academy option attacks go only as their quarterbacks go, and the Black Knights may be unsettled at that position this season.”
Unsettled may have been charitable.
Douglas' advice: If the sportsbooks offer you a spread favoring Kansas State by anything less than 20 points against Army next week, take the Wildcats immediately. This is a buy-low opportunity on EMAW, and Kansas State has the perk of facing a team without an efficient offense, the worst thing you can say about a service-academy option offense.
Do overreact to Indiana’s run fits against Old Dominion. The Hoosiers’ defense was underappreciated last year. This is not that defense.
Allowing one explosive run on the first snap of the game is not a great sign of a focused defense, but it is an allowable mistake. Allowing a second 75+ yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter of a game not yet thoroughly in garbage time is a sign of a defense missing run fits and assignments.
Kennesaw State is by no means good this season, but the Owls should be able to pop a few explosive runs against the Hoosiers next week.
On top of that, Francisco Mendoza did not look stellar in his Indiana debut, completing just 18-of-31 passes for 193 yards.
Douglas' advice: Bet the Over in Bloomington next week. Indiana’s 27-14 win against Old Dominion fell 12 points short of its total, which may deflate next week’s number. But those botched run fits should combine with the Hoosiers’ trying to get Mendoza into a rhythm to create a ripe Over opportunity. Let’s hope for another number in the 49.5-51 range. Hesitation can set in once north of 52.
Line play is the best education in September. It will improve or decline only to a certain extent throughout the season, barring injury. A few offensive lines showed their flaws this week, and Unders can thus be trusted for a few weeks.
Line play may be the only reliable education in September. Anything else becomes an exercise in, “Is Maryland quarterback Malik Washington really good or is FAU’s defense wretched,”? We can come to our best conclusions, but a single data point cannot provide enough information.
Is Coastal Carolina a heaping pile of hot dog feces, or is Virginia much improved? Most things are somewhere in between. The Chanticleers are indeed bad, but the verdict may be out on the Cavaliers.
What stands out is Virginia’s offensive line struggled, the Cavaliers averaging only 3.8 yards per carry in the 48-7 win. Thus, the Under 57 still cashed.
Anyone who watched a minute of Cincinnati’s offense against Nebraska recognizes how woeful the Bearcats’ offensive line is. That is not going to improve this week.
Douglas' advice: Take the Under in both Virginia at NC State and Bowling Green at Cincinnati. The former number is already available around 53.5. The latter will be lower. Take them both. If wanting a third piece of this logic to set you up for a 2-1 section on your ledger, look toward the Over in Miami (OH) at Rutgers. The Knights have a quality offensive line, and it should lead the way to clearing any total south of 50.5.
Rapid fire, others bets to target in Week 2
- Nebraska up to -31 against Akron. The Zips have no, well, zip.
- Hawaii up to -6.5 against Sam Houston State. The Bearkats’ defense is a mess.
- Navy up to -17.5 against UAB. The Midshipmen have the quarterback Army wishes it had.
- Mississippi up to -13.5 at Kentucky. The Wildcats did not know they have a quarterback problem.
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