The path to immortality is just sixty minutes away for the four remaining teams in the College Football Playoff.
There's a lot on the line, which is why we turned to the enormous computing power of ChatGPT for an assist. We fed the AI chatbot reams of relevant data and it gave us the smartest moneyline plays for this week’s showdowns.
Check out the algorithm's NCAAF picks ahead of the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl.
CFP Quarterfinals predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Fiesta Bowl: 
Miami vs 
Mississippi
Moneyline prediction: Miami (-164)
Odds: Miami -3.5 (-102); total 51.5 (O -115 / U -105)
Mississippi has the “anytime, anywhere” offense (37.6 points per game and 496.2 yards per game) and is coming off a statement 39–34 win over Georgia after blasting Tulane 41–10.
But Miami’s path has been built for this kind of matchup: the Canes survived two rock fights (10–3 over Texas A&M, then 24–14 over Ohio State).
That’s not an accident when you’re allowing 13.1 points per game and just 285.1 yards per game on defense.
The betting case is simple: Miami doesn’t have to outscore Mississippi possession-for-possession. It just has to force a couple of empty drives. Miami’s own offense is efficient enough (31.6 PPG) to cash those stops into points.
Peach Bowl: 
Oregon vs 
Indiana
Moneyline prediction: Indiana (-184)
Odds: Indiana -3.5 (-114); total 46.5 (O -110 / U -110)
Indiana has looked like the most complete team in the bracket, and the resume backs it up: 14–0 with 583 points scored and 144 allowed, plus a quarterfinal demolition of Alabama (38–3).
Oregon is dangerous (38.0 PPG and a defense giving up 15.1 PPG) and it just pitched a 23–0 shutout of Texas Tech after winning 51–34 against James Madison in the first round.
Still, Indiana’s edge is the thing bettors can actually bank on: a defense allowing 10.3 PPG and 252.6 yards per game. That's the kind of profile that travels and holds up when nerves spike.
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How to use these picks (without getting cute)
If you’re a casual bettor, moneylines are comfort food: no math gymnastics, no sweating a backdoor cover. But the tradeoff is price, especially when you’re laying heavier odds.
Here are a few practical ways bettors can approach a slate like this:
- Singles > Parlays for favorites. A moneyline parlay looks fun, but one weird bounce nukes the ticket. If you’re taking multiple favorites, a couple of singles can be less painful long-term.
- Be intentional with plus-money dogs. If you’re going to take a shot on an underdog, do it because the number offers enough upside, not because it “feels right.”
- Shop the price when it’s close. Small differences in moneyline (even 5–10 cents) can matter over time.
