College Football Playoff Bracket Prediction & Odds to Make the CFP — Week 9

Things we know to be true in college football in 2025: The Ohio State Buckeyes are good. So are the Alabama Tide despite the most inexplicable loss of the season coming in primetime as they fell to now-disappointing Florida State.

And we know the “disappointing” conversation is led by the Penn State Nittany Lions, with the Texas Longhorns not far behind.

Early College Football Playoff projections would have been justified, including all five of those teams. Just more than halfway through the 2025 season, only two of them warrant mentioning in this bracket projection.

College Football Playoff bracket prediction

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

2025 Playoff Projection

1) Ohio State
2) Alabama
3) Texas A&M
4) Indiana
5) Oregon
6) Texas Tech
7) Miami
8) Georgia
9) Notre Dame
10) Mississippi
11) Georgia Tech
12) Tulane

Ohio State is so likely to make the Playoff that FanDuel has removed those odds from the betting board, and that makes sense. The Buckeyes have the highest EPA margin in the country, per CFB-graphs.com, and the most recent SP+ ratings from ESPN.com consider Ohio State 1.8 points better than the No. 2 team in the country and more than a touchdown better than the No. 6 team.

Increasingly, the same deference should be given to Alabama, now 6-0 since its opening weekend flop in the rain in Tallahassee. The Tide have gone 5-0-1 against the spread in that stretch, the push coming via a backdoor cover. They look more and more like the second-best team in the country by a wide margin, and football purists should salivate at the idea of Ohio State facing Alabama for the national championship.

"Alabama started slow and then the rain took over" is going to be a way less boring narrative than what's going to go around this week but it is probably more true.

— parker fleming (@statsowar) August 30, 2025

Texas A&M and Indiana both look poised to lose their conference championship games, likely their only losses of the season. The Aggies have the tougher path forward — at LSU, at Missouri, vs. South Carolina, and at Texas, their four remaining FBS game — but each of those remaining opponents is clearly flawed. With the win at Notre Dame earlier this season, Texas A&M’s résumé has a cushion to propel the Aggies into a first-round bye.

Meanwhile, it will be a disappointment and a surprise if Indiana does not finish the regular season 12-0. A November trip to Penn State hardly looks worrying anymore, and including that, the Hoosiers’ five remaining opponents have a combined 4-16 Big Ten record, three of those wins coming from UCLA.

Indiana’s success buoys Oregon’s claim to the No. 5 seed, just as Alabama’s success should strengthen Georgia’s claim to a home game in the first round, but deference to Texas Tech and Miami comes as both should win their respective conference championships. The Hurricanes’ path to the ACC title game does rely on Virginia losing twice, but the Cavaliers have looked increasingly suspect.

Virginia would have to lose twice for Miami to slip by the Cavaliers into the ACC title game.
Virginia's remaining schedule: at North Carolina, at Cal, vs Wake Forest, at Duke, vs Virginia Tech.

A loss at Duke could make for the funniest Commonwealth Cup in years.

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 21, 2025

The last three at-large spots are all marked by weak schedules yielding high win totals. None of Notre Dame, Mississippi, or Georgia Tech will have notably impressive wins. Their best victories will be against USC, LSU, and Clemson, respectively.

But the Irish lost by one score at Miami and by one point at home against Texas A&M. As this season progresses, those defeats look less and less dooming. Closing the season on a 10-game winning streak will only further the Notre Dame claim to a better seed.

Mississippi, meanwhile, is a 4.5-point underdog this week at Oklahoma. That likely loss will knock the Rebels to 6-2 and, frankly, they should worry about a late November date with Florida, not to mention the always chaotic Egg Bowl.

A Mississippi loss at Oklahoma this weekend could also set up the funniest Egg Bowl in years, and that is saying something.
10-2 Mississippi gets into the Playoff. 9-3 with a loss to Mississippi State and no ranked wins? Probably not.

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 21, 2025

Georgia Tech may also be dropped in the seeding thanks to a season-closing two-game losing streak. The Yellow Jackets should not be dropped from the Playoff if/when they lose to Georgia in the final week of the season and then to Miami in the ACC title game, but they would be dropped in the Playoff.

Lastly, Tulane would be a slight favorite against South Florida if they met in the American championship game. The Green Wave’s pass defense demands deference.

Yes, I am working on a College Football Playoff projection.
Sign me up for this possible Play-In game in the American.
The matchup to watch would be Tulane's pass defense. It is good enough that opponents try to avoid it. South Florida wouldn't.
via @statsowar pic.twitter.com/6Jjpne9la5

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 21, 2025

2025-26 CFP National Championship odds

Team	Record
Ohio State Buckeyes	7-0	+260
Alabama Crimson Tide	6-1	+650
Indiana Hoosiers	7-0	+850
Oregon Ducks	6-1	+900
Georgia Bulldogs	6-1	+1000
Texas A&M Aggies	7-0	+1000
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	5-2	+12000
Miami Hurricanes	5-1	+1700
Mississippi Rebels	6-1	+2700
Texas Tech Red Raiders	6-1	+2700
Texas Longhorns	5-2	+2700
Oklahoma Sooners	6-1	+3000

Odds last updated on October 21.

Important dates for the College Football Playoff

Pages related to this topic