The only loss this past weekend that impacted the College Football Playoff outlook was Georgia Tech’s miserable rush defense, allowing Pittsburgh to run wild on Saturday night. That shifted the most likely ACC scenario.
Otherwise, Week 13 saw nothing but chalk hold in the Playoff conversation, leading to a rather repetitive College Football Playoff bracket projection.
College Football Playoff bracket prediction
- 5) Georgia vs. 12) North Texas
- 8) Oregon vs. 9) Oklahoma
- 6) Texas Tech vs. 11) SMU
- 7) Mississippi vs. 10) Notre Dame
- BYES: 1) Ohio State, 2) Indiana, 3) Alabama, 4) Texas A&M
CFP Bracket analysis
Alabama sits at No. 10 in the current selection committee rankings, almost certain to remain there this Tuesday night. Then why jump the Tide up to No. 3 in this projection?
All Alabama needs to do to make the SEC title game is win as a six-point favorite at Auburn this weekend. Given the Tigers’ defensive woes against the pass — No. 56 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against and No. 90 in defensive dropback success rate, per CFB-graphs.com — there should be a bounty of trust in the Tide.
At that point, Alabama will be a slight underdog to Texas A&M in the SEC championship game, but give the Tide a nod of deference out of sheer desperation. If they lose, they may miss the Playoff entirely, while the Aggies will already know their first-round Playoff bye is rather assured.
Texas A&M would (will) be favored in the SEC title game against Alabama. @ESPN_BillC's SP+ numbers would argue for A&M by about 1.5.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 25, 2025
But, would Alabama's sense of desperation be enough reason to lean toward the Tide?
(chart via @statsowar / CFB-graphs . com) pic.twitter.com/cQCcG9JQ1p
A head-to-head win in the SEC title game would be a strong argument to vault the Tide back into the top four, no matter their two losses.
Do not assume the middle of this bracket is locked in stone. Some might argue Notre Dame’s 70-7 win against Syracuse is reason enough to jump the Irish ahead of Oklahoma after the Sooners struggled against Missouri, but the Notre Dame blowout was an exercise in the extreme. For practical concerns, approach it as if it were 35-7, still impressive and dominant, as well as a more predictive analysis.
Regardless, Georgia, Oregon, Mississippi, and Oklahoma all have reasonable tests this weekend. The Irish need just one of them to lose to vault into position to enjoy a homefield game in the first round for the second year in a row. But guessing which of those will fall is a fool’s errand — my money is on Mississippi falling to Mississippi State thanks to Lane Kiffin’s selfishness. Thus, this projection takes the coward’s route of suggesting none will lose.
Four chances next weekend for an upset to push Notre Dame into hosting a first-round Playoff game.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 23, 2025
Which one gets the job done? Does any? pic.twitter.com/nN3ZRjcy8h
Until that change comes, the only change in these projections is slotting SMU into the No. 11 spot as the ACC champion, replacing Georgia Tech after the Yellow Jackets’ ramblin’ wreck of a rush defense completed their spiral out of the Playoff.
Virginia is a 9.5-point favorite this weekend vs Virginia Tech.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 25, 2025
SMU is a 13.5-point favorite at Cal.
If both win, they will meet for the ACC title game.
Which is why, folks, we are looking at SMU making the Playoff two years in a row.
(chart via @statsowar / CFB-graphs . com) pic.twitter.com/6gg9pV4ilv
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Latest odds to make the College Football Playoff
| Team | Conference |  |
|---|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders |
Big 12 | -6000 |
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
IND. | -1050 |
 Oregon Ducks |
Big Ten | -1000 |
 Mississippi Rebels |
SEC | -480 |
 Oklahoma Sooners |
SEC | -450 |
 Alabama Crimson Tide |
SEC | -205 |
 North Texas Mean Green |
AAC | -124 |
 SMU Mustangs |
ACC | +112 |
 Tulane Green Wave |
AAC | +160 |
 BYU Cougars |
Big 12 | +210 |
 Virginia Cavaliers |
ACC | +210 |
 Miami Hurricanes |
ACC | +225 |
 Vanderbilt Commodores |
SEC | +280 |
Important dates for the College Football Playoff
| Round | Dates | Matchup(s) |
|---|---|---|
| First round | December 19-20 | No. 12 at No. 5 No. 9 at No. 8 No. 11 at No. 6 No. 10 at No. 7 |
| Quarterfinals | December 31-January 1 | No. 4 vs. winner of No. 12 vs. No. 5 No. 1 vs. winner of No. 9 vs. No. 8 No. 3 vs winner of No. 11 vs. No. 6 No. 2 vs winner of No. 10 vs No. 7 |
| Semifinal 1 | January 8 | Fiesta Bowl |
| Semifinal 2 | January 9 | Peach Bowl |
| Championship | January 19 | CFP National Championship Game |
