Ladies and gentlemen, it’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for. Throw on a sweater, grab a pumpkin spice-flavored beverage or snack, and celebrate the return of MACtion.
One of the first midweek MACtion games of the season is a good one, too, as the conference-leading Buffalo Bulls (5-3 overall, 4-0 MAC) hit the road to face a feisty Ohio Bobcats (5-3, 3-1) team that's looking to move into first place in the standings with a victory.
Find out who has the betting edge in our college football betting picks and predictions for November 1.
Buffalo vs Ohio best odds
Buffalo vs Ohio picks and predictions
Both programs were in a similar position before the 2021 season after losing head coaches who were integral to their prior success. Buffalo fell to 4-8 after Lance Leipold took to the Kansas job, where he has gone on to be one of the hottest commodities in the looming coaching carousel this offseason.
Ohio legend Frank Solich abruptly retired due to health-related concerns after 16 seasons with the program and the Bobcats dropped to 3-9.
Fast forward a year later and both teams have winning records. Which team is further along in its path to becoming a conference contender yet again? Both teams seem evenly matched according to the numbers: Buffalo ranks 67th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play on offense and 114th on defense, while Ohio is 68th in EPA per play on offense and 117th on defense. Those numbers are eerily similar, so let’s dive in a bit deeper.
There’s reason to expect points in this matchup as both teams are better offensively than they are on defense. With a total set at 58.5, we’ll be looking at the Over as our best bet.
Buffalo is averaging 30.9 points per game thanks to a balanced offense that rushes for 156.5 yards per game and throws for 242 yards per game. Rutgers transfer Cole Snyder has been the answer at quarterback, throwing to a talented receiving room headlined by Justin Marshall (497 receiving yards, five touchdowns) and Quian Williams (450 receiving yards, four touchdowns).
Head coach Maurice Linguist has engineered a quick turnaround by utilizing transfers, as Snyder, Marshall (Louisville), and Williams (Eastern Michigan) all arrived via the portal. Ohio is allowing 34.4 points per game on the defensive side of the ball while ranking 107th in both Success Rate and Explosiveness.
Tim Albin’s Ohio Bobcats average 32 points per game. Kurtis Rourke is having a fantastic season at quarterback, completing 68.5% of his passes while averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. He’s thrown 16 touchdowns this season while issuing only three interceptions. The Bulls rank just 121st in passing EPA and 116th in passing explosiveness, making this a winnable matchup for Rourke and the offense.
My best bet: Over 58.5 (-107 at PointsBet)
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Buffalo vs Ohio spread analysis
The Bulls have won five straight games and are now demanding respect in the betting market, where college football odds established them as -3 favorites on the road in this pivotal clash in the MAC.
They’ve been very profitable for bettors this season, sitting at 6-1-1 against the spread overall this season with a perfect 4-0 record, both straight up and ATS, in conference play. A year ago, Buffalo scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to grab a 27-26 come-from-behind win at home.
Ohio has been profitable in its own right, sitting at 5-3 ATS overall and a perfect 4-0 ATS in MAC play. Something will have to give on Tuesday night in a matchup between two teams that haven’t lost ATS in conference play yet this season.
Looking at historical trends, the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two schools. Considering that Ohio has an average cover margin of 12 points per game in conference play, it seems as though they may be undervalued yet again as the home team in this matchup with the better quarterback.
The Bobcats are undefeated at home this season. They’ve played well against good competition lately, too, going 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against a team with a winning record.
Buffalo vs Ohio Over/Under analysis
The total is set at 58.5 across all books as of the time of this writing.
Buffalo’s offensive revival has it trending hard to the Over. The Bulls are 5-0 to the Over in their last five games against a team with a winning record. They’ve typically scored points in bunches coming off extra rest, going 8-1 to the Over in their last nine games following a bye week. MACtion has tended to be high scoring, and that’s evidenced by the Bulls’ 12-3 mark to the Over in their last 15 Tuesday games.
Ohio’s defense ranks just 118th in passing EPA and 114th in passing success rate, which could be trouble against Snyder and this dangerous group of receivers.
As for Ohio, the Bobcats are 5-1 to the Over in their last six home games. They have also been prone to high-scoring games when it is MACtion season, going 7-2 to the Over in their last 9 Tuesday games and 7-3 to the Over in their last 10 games in November.
Buffalo may be allowing just 24.8 points per game, but that number seems a bit fortunate considering the Bulls rank 114th in EPA on defense. They’ve been prone to giving up big plays both on the ground and through the air, ranking 128th in explosiveness.
Buffalo vs Ohio betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in Buffalo’s last nine games following a bye week. Find more NCAA betting trends for Buffalo vs. Ohio.
Buffalo vs Ohio game info
| Location: | Peden Stadium, Athens, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, November 1, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Buffalo vs Ohio latest injuries
Buffalo vs Ohio weather
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