College football betting expert Brad Powers is back with his favorite plays for Week 8, breaking down where the value lies on this weekend’s slate.
In an in-depth conversation with Covers’ Joe Osborne, Powers shares his top NCAAF picks, while also weighing in on Penn State's coaching vacancy and Indiana's quest for a national championship.
Old Dominion vs 
James Madison best bet
Pick: Old Dominion +2.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Don't let Old Dominion's 24-point loss to Marshall deceive you, as Brad believes the Monarchs played far better than the final score indicated.
"They were minus five in turnovers in the game, and statistically even," Brad explains.
Old Dominion also has another significant advantage over their opponent this weekend.
"Old Dominion is 1.5 yards per play margin better than James Madison," he says. "On top of that, Old Dominion has played a much tougher schedule than James Madison, including a 13-point loss against this great Indiana team. I think there's a chance here that Old Dominion flips to favorite."
Purdue vs 
Northwestern best bet
Pick: Purdue +4 (+138 at FanDuel)
Brad is also bullish on the Boilermakers, who looked solid in defeat last week against the Gophers.
"Purdue out-gained Minnesota last week by 200 yards in the game but somehow lost because Minnesota scored a couple of non-offensive touchdowns," he says. "Also if you're reading the tea leaves in the marketplace, Purdue took a ton of money in the market last week. They got bet from about a 10-point underdog to a seven-point underdog. I think we'll likely see money come in again on Purdue this week. Northwestern beat Penn State on the road as a three touchdown underdog. Let's fade them now here in a favorite role."
One coach to Rhule them all
The Nittany Lions made headlines by canning head coach James Franklin following three straight losses. The move will cost the university $40 million, but Brad believes it was inevitable in light of the team's recent downward spiral.
"You lose outright not only to Oregon but then back-to-back weeks you lose outright as a three touchdown plus favorite," he says. "That's an historic two-week upset run. You already had the sentiment that you can't get over the mountain top and win the big game, and then you lose the games that you should win. What made it probably easier, unfortunately, was Drew Aller being out for the season. Now Penn State went from being a national championship contender to probably fighting for their lives just to make a bowl game."
Brad thinks Penn State may consider Urban Meyer or Jon Gruden as a replacement, but ultimately there's one candidate who's too perfect to ignore.
"It's not going to make a lot of people happy, but it's Matt Rhule," he says. "He's the favorite in the betting markets and he has an association with the school since he played at Penn State. He's also very familiar with the athletic director. I think that's the most likely hire. When you fire a guy like Franklin that was in the Top 5 in wins in the last four years, you've got to make a splash."
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Hoosier daddy?
Is it time to take Indiana seriously after the Hoosiers beat Oregon on the road 30-20? Brad certainly thinks so.
"There are really three teams out there you can rubber stamp and say, 'Yep they're in the playoffs.' And Indiana is one of those teams," Brad says. "The other two are Ohio State and Miami. Indiana's going to be 12-0 playing Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship game."
"They had to play Penn State on the road. You could have bet that game just two weeks ago and Penn State was more than a touchdown favorite in that game. Now all of a sudden Penn State fires their coach, loses their starting quarterback, and Indiana gets a big win. Now Indiana's going to be more than a touchdown favored in that game. They're in the playoffs and they are a serious threat to win it all."
Bowling over the competition
As a Bowling Green alum, Brad took special delight in the Falcons' 28-23 come-from-behind win over Toledo.
"They trailed the game 21-0," he says. "Bowling Green was 0-75 in the last 20 years when trailing by 21-plus points. And more importantly Toledo has lost 17 times outright as a favorite. Not in the last 10 years either. We're talking the last four-plus seasons. Toledo's lost more games as a favorite outright than any program in the country."
Don't overlook Utah
Looking for an under the radar team to get on the cheap? Brad believes Utah deserves a lot more buzz.
"If you look at Utah's schedule, they're favored over an undefeated BYU team on the road this week," he says. "If they win that game then I'm here to tell you it's not going to be +390 next week."
"I kind of like Utah in that game since I think BYU is a little overrated. You look at Utah's remaining schedule and they're going to be favored in every game remaining, so they could make it to the playoffs because the SEC and Big 10 teams are going to beat each other up. Utah could finish 11-1 in the regular season, with their only loss being the Texas Tech."
