College football betting expert Brad Powers is back with his favorite plays for Week 10, breaking down where the value lies on this weekend’s slate.
In an in-depth conversation with Covers’ Joe Osborne, Powers shares his top NCAAF picks, while also weighing in on the Hoosier's rising fortunes, and the end of the Brian Kelly era at LSU.
Purdue vs 
Michigan best bet
Pick: Purdue +21.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Brad is fading Michigan heading into its Big Ten grudge match with Purdue.
"Michigan is not the team that I like to be laying a lot of points with," he explains. "They're not looking to throw the ball up and down the field. They certainly didn't last week, as they ran it with with both running backs. I just think this is too much to lay for a plodding Michigan offense."
He also believes the Boilermakers also still have some fight in them despite their pedestrian 2-6 record.
"Purdue in the marketplace last week took about as much money as any team on the board," he says. "They went from +3 against Rutgers to -3. They lost by three points, but it's not like they've given up and waved the white flag on the season."
Louisville vs 
Virginia Tech best bet
Pick: Virginia Tech +10.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
The Hokies enter Saturday's game against the Cardinals as double digit dogs, but that's not scaring off Brad.
"I like to look at this time of year when numbers are tighter and see who's getting a lot of play in the market," he says. "Virginia Tech got bet from -2.5 against Cal to minus -6.5. They ended up winning in double overtime, but they were the right side in that game. They pummeled Cal at the line of scrimmage, outrushing them by 300 yards in the game."
Brad likes how Virginia Tech has been performing under interim head coach Philip Montgomery.
"It's quite evident they're actually playing better under the interim than they did the previous head coach," he says. "Louisville had the big win against Miami a couple weeks ago, but they're better in the underdog role than the favorite role. Hell, they were sitting there as a 25-point favorite last week, only beating Boston College late in the fourth quarter by seven. They ended up winning by 14. I just don't want to be laying more than 10 points on the road with a Louisville team now playing with some pressure because they have to win out to make the ACC championship game."
Brad is buying into the Hoosiers
Indiana put on one of the most dominant performances of Week 9, blowing out UCLA 56-9 in a game that was never within reach. Brad took notice.
"Not only are they No. 2 in the polls, but they're also No. 2 in my power ratings," he says. "They're No. 1 in yards per game margin, and No. 1 in scoring margin. If we're looking at treating teams like stocks, they would be the second most trustworthy commodity right now behind the defending champs, Ohio State. And keep in mind we are talking about Indiana, which has historically been maybe the worst Power Four program in the country for the last 50 years."
Steer clear of the Crimson Tide
Alabama may be 7-1 and No. 4 in the country, but Brad doesn't like what he sees from the Crimson Tide, who have been considerably less dominant than their record suggests.
"Yes, they've won seven straight since the opener, including their fifth straight win in conference play, but it was the fifth straight game where the scoreboard was better than the box score," he asserts. "If you get into like some of the particulars like adjusted box scores postgame and win expectancy, Alabama should only have maybe five wins, not seven wins. I'm not totally sold on Alabama."
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LSU ends Brian Kelly era
LSU sent shockwaves across college football by firing head coach Brian Kelly following the team's 49-25 loss to Texas A&M. Brad believes the writing was on the wall.
"LSU was winning at halftime, but there was give up there; the team quit in the second half," he says. "And let's be honest; Brian Kelly was never a great fit down there. He didn't perform well in the big games like he did at Notre Dame. And the reality is personality-wise it's probably easier to get rid of somebody like him when he's not a very likable character."
The search now begins for a new head coach, and Brad is expecting the school to consider some very big names.
"Lane Kiffin should be getting a phone call to say the least," he says. "Eli Drinkwitz, another SEC coach known for offense, you got to give him a call. Brent Key, the Georgia Tech coach, would be a really good solid hire, although he's not going to move the needle like Lane Kiffin, but I think he'd be a great fit coach down there. Jon Sumrall, you don't have to go too far for him. He's the Tulane head coach, and has assistant coaching experience in the SEC. And then I'm going to throw a name out there from the NFL ranks: Joe Brady. LSU fans are very familiar with him because he was the OC when they won the national championship with the best offense in the history of college football in 2019. He's the Bills OC right now. He's down the list but I don't think it gets past him."
Eyeing the Buckeyes
Finally, Brad is playing it safe with his conference championship wagers.
"I'm not going to go with a team with a plus sign next to their name," he says. "I'm gonna go with a team with a minus next to their name: Ohio State at -150 to win the Big Ten. There's so much parity involved in college football, but I am pretty sure we're going to see Ohio State play Indiana in the Big Ten Championship game. It's almost a sure thing at this point, and that's very easy to me for me to project. I think Ohio State will be more than a 3-point favorite in that game, and if you do the moneyline conversion that equates to more than -150 on Ohio State. I like the Buckeyes -150 to win the Big Ten."
