Alabama vs Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: September 10

After making a career beating up on his former assistants, Nick Saban lost twice to proteges last year. Our Alabama vs. Texas picks expect Saban to get back to his winning ways Saturday against Steve Sarkisian — the real question is "by how much?"

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Sep 10, 2022 • 08:01 ET • 4 min read

This article covers a past game! See our Texas vs Alabama prediction for the upcoming game on September 9, 2023

It’s Alabama. It’s Nick Saban. Facing a former pupil.

This time, it's Steve Sarkisian as the head coach of the Texas Longhorns, who have one of the best players in college football in running back Bijan Robinson, while quarterback Quinn Ewers impressed in his Longhorns debut.

But does Texas have a hope as a 20-point underdog — against a motivated Crimson Tide team that boasts the reigning Heisman winner (Bryce Young) and the best defensive player in the nation (Will Anderson)?

The answer lies below in free college football picks and predictions for this Week 2 battle between two of the most storied programs in college football.

Alabama vs Texas best odds

Alabama vs Texas picks and predictions

Alabama is a freight train that will be absolutely rolling all year after coming up just short in the National Championship last season — and we saw that in Week 1 when it punished Utah State 55-0.

Yes, Alabama was a massive 41.5-point favorite, but remember: the Aggies were the Mountain West Conference defending champions. So, it’s not like that was some FCS beatdown.

That’s a 55-0 win where Bama scored all of its points in the first 35 minutes of the game. Then the Tide pulled all their starters and still didn’t give up any points.

They passed for 281 yards. Rushed for 278. Frankly, it was a stunningly impressive performance.

Meanwhile, Texas took care of business in its opener, defeating UL Monroe 52-10, covering the 36.5-point chalk in the process. Ewers was solid, going 16-24 for 225 yards with two touchdowns and a pick, while Bijan Robinson was Bijan Robinson, but that was against a program that has been one of the nation's worst the last few seasons.

Reminder: This is just Ewers' second career start and he has to deal with arguably the best pass rush in the country, fueled by Anderson and Dallas Turner. The Longhorns' signal-caller could experience fear for the first time under center.

On top of that, it just doesn’t seem feasible that this Texas defense will be able to slow down Alabama. Like, at all. Last year, the Longhorns ranked 100th in the nation in opponent yards per play and 93rd in scoring defense, giving up 31.3 points per game.

Perhaps worst of all for Texas? After Nick Saban defeated former assistants in 24 consecutive matchups, he lost two last season: One to Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M and then to Kirby Smart in the title game.

Sark may be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Texas may hit a few big plays, but Bama will hit a lot of big plays — and do more of the little things right — and pull away to cover this spread in the fourth quarter.

Texas is not back yet. Roll Tide.

My best bet: Alabama -20 (-110 at Caesars)

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Alabama vs Texas betting preview

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Spread analysis Over/Under analysis Game info Injuries Weather Trend to know

Spread analysis

The preseason line for this game had Alabama as a 17-point favorite for this matchup, so not much has changed between then and now. But honestly, the adjustment from 17 to 20 doesn’t feel like enough.

It keeps coming back to a few things for me. One, this is only Ewers' second career start and he will face real pressure in the pocket and have to read (and process) complex defenses. Quickly.

Then there is the Texas defense. Sarkisian and his staff did not do enough in the offseason to address the many holes on that side of the ball, and having to deal with Bryce Young, his (once again) trio of dangerous receivers in Jermaine Burton, Traeshon Holden, and Kobe Prentice, bot to mention transfer running back Jahmyr Gibbs.

Oh, and don't forget that Texas lost to Kansas... last season. I have Alabama winning this game by about 25 points, so if you like Bama too, go out and grab this number now before it gets to 21 — which it could easily do as kickoff approaches this weekend.

Over/Under analysis

The total for the matchup has jumped from 61.5 to 65.5 after these schools combined to score 111 points last week. However, I would caution those who are still out there looking at the Over.

Yes, Alabama has a really good chance to put up a 50-burger on Texas, but that four-point increase is significant.

There is a really good chance that Sarkisian will try to shorten this game by feeding his star RB the ball, even though this is not the defense to do that against.

Not only will Saban be scheming to take away Robinson all week, but this is also a defense that allowed just 2.7 yards per rush attempt a season ago, and looks like it's coming into this game with something to prove. I would be shocked if Texas got half of its output from last week.

It could be a real slog for the Longhorns on offense. This game has a real 45-17 feel to it — proceed with caution.

Alabama vs Texas game info

Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
Kick-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Alabama vs Texas key injuries

Find our latest College football injury reports.

Alabama vs Texas weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Alabama vs Texas betting trend to know

Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five games when facing a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Alabama vs. Texas.

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