The Iron Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Auburn Tigers is one of college football’s most storied rivalries.
Unfortunately, it’s been a little one-sided lately, with the Tide winning five straight tin this matchup. If they can make it six in a row, they’ll be headed back to the SEC title game.
To get the job done, the Tide will rely on Ty Simpson and the passing game, and I’ve built a juicy Alabama vs. Auburn SGP that backs Bama’s aerial attack.
For even more college football picks for this epic rivalry game, check out my Alabama vs. Auburn predictions.
Our best Alabama vs Auburn SGP for Week 14
While the Auburn Tigers may be able to keep the Iron Bowl close for a while, its biggest weakness is the Alabama Crimson Tide's greatest strength. I’m talking about the Tigers' inability to shut down the pass.
Auburn enters this game ranked 90th in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 56th in opponent EPA per dropback. And now all the Tigers have to do is contend with arguably the best passing attack in the country.
Ty Simpson and his receiving corps, led by Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, rank eighth in offensive success rate on dropbacks and ninth in EPA per dropback.
The Alabama aerial attack will be relentless, and Simpson has too many weapons at his disposal for a struggling Auburn pass defense to contend with. It will not only be the difference in the Tide winning the Iron Bowl, but covering the spread as well.
Alabama wins and covers this game on the strength of Ty Simpson’s arm. So, taking Simpson to go Over 272.5 passing yards as a part of this SGP is the next logical step.
He’s gone Over this number in five of his last eight games vs. Power 4 opponents and the last time Auburn faced a passing attack like this it got torched for 377 yards by Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt.
Simpson has a terrific trio of receivers in Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton, but he’s started working tight end Josh Cuevas into the mix more recently as well. He has 13 catches for 158 yards and has scored two touchdowns over the last three games.
I like the value for him to find the end zone once again in the Iron Bowl.
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