Alabama has won five consecutive Iron Bowls against rival Auburn, and with a sixth, they’ll earn a spot in the SEC title game.
If the Tigers want to end this five-game slide against the Crimson Tide, they’ll have to slow down Bama’s potent passing attack.
However, my Alabama vs. Auburn predictions explain why that’s easier said than done for War Eagle. Keep reading for all my college football picks for this classic SEC rivalry game.
Alabama vs Auburn prediction
Alabama vs Auburn best bet: Alabama -5.5 (-110)
It’s as simple as it gets: if the Alabama Crimson Tide win the Iron Bowl, they’ll be playing for the SEC Championship.
Despite a few missteps, Alabama has looked like one of the better teams in the country this season. Ty Simpson looks like one of the best QBs in the country, and the defense has been solid.
Meanwhile, this season didn’t exactly go as planned for the Auburn Tigers. Head coach Hugh Freeze was let go, and the team is 5-6. But none of that would matter if the Tigers were able to pull off the upset against their biggest rival.
And they might have something in QB Ashton Daniels, who threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns while running for another 89 yards and two scores in a recent loss to Vanderbilt.
While Auburn may be able to keep this game close for a while, unfortunately, its biggest weakness is Bama’s greatest strength. I’m talking about the Tigers' inability to shut down the pass.
Auburn enters this game ranked 90th in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 56th in opponent EPA per dropback. And now all the Tigers have to do is contend with arguably the best passing attack in the country.
Simpson and his receiving corps, led by Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, rank eighth in offensive success rate on dropbacks and ninth in EPA per dropback.
The Alabama aerial attack will be relentless, and Simpson has too many weapons at his disposal for a struggling Auburn pass defense to contend with. It will not only be the difference in the Tide winning the Iron Bowl, but covering the spread as well.
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Alabama vs Auburn same-game parlay
Alabama wins and covers this game on the strength of Ty Simpson’s arm. He’s gone Over this passing yards line in five of his last eight games vs. Power 4 opponents, and the last time Auburn faced a passing attack like this, it got torched for 377 yards by Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt.
Simpson has a terrific trio of receivers in Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton, but he’s started working tight end Josh Cuevas into the mix more recently as well. Cuevas has 13 catches for 158 yards and has scored two touchdowns over the last three games. I like the value for him to find the end zone once again in the Iron Bowl.
Alabama vs Auburn SGP
- Alabama -5.5
- Ty Simpson Over 272.5 passing yards
- Josh Cuevas TD
Our deep-ball SGP: Coleman gets involved
Cam Coleman has always been a stud, but he went off with his first game with Ashton Daniels as his QB, going for 143 yards and a TD on 10 catches against Vandy.
Alabama vs Auburn SGP
- Alabama -5.5
- Ty Simpson Over 272.5 passing yards
- Josh Cuevas TD
- Cam Coleman TD
Alabama vs Auburn odds
- Spread: Alabama -5.5 | Auburn +5.5
- Moneyline: Alabama -220 | Auburn +184
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Alabama vs Auburn trend to know
Auburn has only covered in four of its last 12 games for -4.80 Units and a -36% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Auburn.
How to watch Alabama vs Auburn
| Location | Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL |
| Date | Saturday, November 29, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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