The instinct may be to blindly bet the Under in any meeting between service academies, but the better bet in this matchup is taking the Navy Midshipmen on the spread.
Not only are the Midshipmen simply quite good, but the Air Force Falcons are frankly bad.
My Air Force vs. Navy predictions would be comfortable with this spread all the way up to two full touchdowns.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Air Force vs Navy prediction
Air Force vs Navy best bet: Navy -12.5 (-112)
Navy played vanilla option football against Rice last week, allowing the Owls to enjoy a backdoor cover as was long expected with that three-score spread.
Part of the logic was that anytime a service academy is a 14.5-point favorite, or greater, the game is too short to be certain of that much of a gap.
This weekend’s Midshipmen spread staying within two touchdowns avoids that fear and makes this choice much easier. As does the opponent.
While Air Force is probably a touch better than Rice (despite their inverted records), it is crucial to recognize that Navy does not like its aerial rival. There is a distinct animosity here.
The Midshipmen are less likely to let up on the gas when leading or to consider a vanilla approach. They want to rout the Falcons.
And they should be able to, facing one of the bottom-20 defenses in the country and one that is noticeably poor against the run. That run defense struggle — ranking No. 117 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against, per cfb-graphs.com — can somewhat be chalked up to opponents’ size, a worry that should not be as distinct against Navy.
However, the Midshipmen are so ruthlessly efficient on the ground this year, led by Blake Horvath, that Air Force’s failure should still be clear.
Air Force vs Navy same-game parlay
Combining an Over 53.5 with a first-quarter Under 10.5 may make little sense, but the latter is largely a bet that 15 minutes is not enough time for two sustained service-academy drives, certainly not early in the game.
Navy will eventually hit some explosive passes, helping the Over's cause, and these two teams both rank in the top-12 in finishing quality drives, the kind of efficiency that can turn a plodding game into a high-scoring one.
Air Force vs Navy 3-leg SGP
- Navy -12.5
- Over 53.5
- 1Q Under 10.5
Air Force vs Navy odds
- Spread: Air Force +17.5 (-110) | Navy -17.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Air Force +350 | Navy -450
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)
Air Force vs Navy trend to know
Air Force is not only 0-3 against the spread against FBS teams this season, but the Falcons have fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 13.5 points in those three games. Find more college football betting trends for Air Force vs Navy.
How to watch Air Force vs Navy
| Location | Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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