Xavier vs Butler Picks and Predictions: Musketeers Too Complete for Bulldogs

The Xavier Musketeers will hit the road to take on the Butler Bulldogs. Xavier is 11-2 on the year and ranked in the Top 25, but after taking a loss to a very good Villanova team, Xavier is looking to rebound in tonight’s matchup. 

On the other hand, Butler already has five losses on the season and just took a home loss to Seton Hall, 71-56. Is Butler going to finish at the bottom of the Big East?

Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Xavier vs Butler on Friday, January 7. 

Xavier vs Butler odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Xavier opened as a 5.5-point favorite but is currently sitting at -4.5 at this moment. Meanwhile, the total hasn’t seen much line movement since opening at 130.5. However, it looks like line movement is starting to favor the Under. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Xavier vs Butler predictions

• Prediction: Xavier -4.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 128.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Xavier -4.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 1/7/2022 at 8:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Xavier vs Butler game info

• Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Friday, January 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FSN

Xavier at Butler betting preview

Injuries

Xavier: No injuries to report.
Butler: Pierce Thomas G (Out), Bo Hodges G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Musketeers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Xavier vs. Butler.

Xavier vs Butler picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Butler Bulldogs have a home win against DePaul and beat Oklahoma on the road in early December in overtime, but overall, Butler has struggled this season. It has losses to all of the big names in teams like Michigan State, Houston, Texas A&M, Purdue, and Seton Hall. Against Purdue, Butler lost by nearly 30, and most losses against those top teams have been by double digits.

Xavier is currently shooting a 52% effective field goal percentage. The Musketeers have also shot 33.9% from deep and 52.9% from inside. Inside the arc is where Xavier should really feast. The Musketeers are assisting at a high rate and scoring nearly 50% of points inside the arc. That will be crucial against a Butler team that is allowing teams to shoot 52.3% from two-point range.

Butler has done a couple of things well this season, including limiting offensive rebounds. Opponents are averaging just a 25.5% rate on the offensive glass, but Xavier has earned 32.9% offensive rebounds and will get some second chances as a result. 

However, the Musketeers rarely foul, and get to the line themselves at a really high rate. Basically, every game, Xavier is winning the foul shooting battle. On top of that, the Musketeers shoot 71.1% from the line while Butler shoots 66.7%.

So, give me Xavier -4.5 in this matchup. 

Prediction: Xavier -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Butler's offense is much worse than the defense. The Bulldogs are shooting a 47.9% effective field goal percentage while turning the ball over 21.6% of the time. It's also going to be extremely hard for Butler to win offensive rebounds against Xavier, as the Musketeers allow just 23 percent offensive rebounds this season.

The Bulldogs are also shooting just 31.7 percent from three and 48.2 percent from inside the arc this season. Both of those numbers, again, are below average. 

Those numbers aren’t going to help them hit an Over. 

Xavier has really dominated defensively inside the arc, allowing teams to shoot just 42.3 percent. From deep, Xavier has held opponents to 30.8 percent from behind the arc.

I’ll grab the Under here. 

Prediction: Under 128.5 (-110)

Best bet

Xavier's got the height advantage and realistically has so much more depth. They boast a balanced roster, with an array of skill sets that can contribute in a number of areas and boost the team’s floor in several crucial aspects of the game. 

Each player on Xavier’s roster ranks nationally in at least one KenPom-tracked stat, which speaks to their collective capability and well-rounded fit.

I like them to bounce back tonight against an underwhelming Butler team.

Pick: Xavier +4.5 (-110)

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