As March Madness odds continue to shake up, the 2022-23 NIT rambles on in Eugene with the Wisconsin Badgers hitting the road to face the Oregon Ducks in the quarterfinals.
The Ducks have looked the part of a No. 1 seed thus far, demolishing UC Irvine 84-58 in the first round and dispatching UCF 68-54 in the second round. The Badgers — a strong No. 2 seed — crashed the mid-major hopes of both Bradley (81-62) and Liberty (75-71).
Which team will keep its season alive with another win? Check out our college basketball picks for Wisconsin vs. Oregon below to find out.
Be sure to also check out our March Madness picks page as the Sweet 16 round nears.
Wisconsin vs Oregon best odds
Wisconsin vs Oregon picks and predictions
It’s a commonly known truth that Dana Altman teams reach another gear when the calendar flips to March. That could be the case again, albeit not in the tournament that Oregon fans would hope.
After failing to reach the NCAA Tournament this season,, the Ducks have obliterated their first two opponents in the NIT, making quick work of both UC Irvine and UCF.
Forward Nate Bittle was the star of the show against the Knights, finishing with a career-high 21 points to go along with 13 rebounds to notch his second career double-double. His massive performance was needed as his team is currently shorthanded.
Star big man N’Faly Dante missed the game with an ankle injury, and guards Jermaine Cousnard and Will Richardson have also been out injured for the first two rounds of the NIT.
Oregon checks in at 38th overall in KenPom, ranking 34th in offensive efficiency and 53rd in defensive efficiency. The Ducks typically live within the paint, ranking 15th in Haslametric’s near-proximity shooting metric.
Meanwhile, It’s been a down year for Wisconsin, who check in at 67th overall in KenPom — 131st in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency. The offense has struggled and averaged just 65.7 points per game, 322nd out of 363 teams.
The Badgers simply haven’t been able to put the ball in the hoop at a high rate, converting 41.7% of their field goal attempts (317th nationally) and 67.3% of their free throw attempts (316th). They’ve gotten hot at the line in the NIT but a whole season’s worth of data points to this being a well below-average bunch.
The Ducks have been able to survive and advance without their top three scorers thus far, but one has to question if that success will continue against a stout Badgers' defense ranking 28th in adjusted efficiency. In lieu of their two starting guards, the Ducks attempted a season-low 47 field goals in the second round against UCF.
A similar low-possession game could be on tap against a Wisconsin team that likes to slow the pace down just like UCF does. The Badgers rank 342nd in adjusted tempo, which is even lower than the Knights at 307th.
I’ll back this game to go Under the total of 133.5 and would play it down to 131.5.
My best bet: Under 133.5 (-110 at Unibet)
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Wisconsin vs Oregon spread analysis
The spread has opened with Oregon established as a -4 favorite.
The Ducks have been on a roll at home, covering four of their last five games at Matthew Knight Arena. The've typically fared well at home this season, posting an 11-8-1 against the spread record. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has struggled on the road with a 4-7 ATS record across 11 away trips.
This has been a profitable range for the Ducks as well, who are 6-4-1 ATS as a favorite of between one and seven points. The Badgers have struggled a bit in that same range, going 6-7-1 ATS as a dog of between one and seven points.
Oregon played one Big Ten team this season, falling 74-70 to Michigan State on a neutral court back on November 26. Wisconsin won both of its games against the Pac-12 — a 60-50 win over Stanford, and a 64-59 victory over USC, both of which came on a neutral court.
The trends seem to support playing Oregon on its home court. However, I can’t back a team that might be without its top three scorers.
Wisconsin vs Oregon Over/Under analysis
When Wisconsin has the ball offensively it looks to find open looks behind the arc, ranking 72nd in Haslametric’s 3-point attempt rate. They haven’t been particularly adept at knocking down those attempts, however, ranking 170th in 3-point percentage at 34.3%. They also struggle to get to the line, ranking 343rd in free-throws attempted per game (14.5) while also hitting under 70% at the charity stripe.
Oregon will need to run the Badgers off the arc considering the Ducks are a below-average 3-point defense (34.2%) They do excel at limiting fouls though, sending opponents to the charity stripe at the 19th-lowest rate in the country.
Oregon grades out as a Top-35 offense analytically but one has to question whether or not that success will continue with injury concerns to its top three scorers. No other player on the roster averages double figures, so relying on scoring outbursts like Bittle’s against UCF may not be a tried and true method for consistently scoring points.
Wisconsin shoots at a low percentage, plays at a slow pace, fails to get to the line frequently, and struggles to grab offensive rebounds (7.7 per game — 332nd nationally). This is generally a good recipe to target Unders with, and I’ll be doing that against an Oregon team that typically has a good offense but has numerous health concerns.
Wisconsin vs Oregon betting trend to know
Oregon is 4-1 to the Under in its last five games following an ATS win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Oregon.
Wisconsin vs Oregon game info
| Location: | Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 21, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
