Few high major teams in college basketball have been as disappointing as the Michigan Wolverines this season. Juwan Howard’s on the hot seat as a result and now his program must deal with a Big Ten title-contending Wisconsin Badgers team.
The college basketball odds have Wisconsin as a 5.5-point road favorite thanks to how well Greg Gard’s team matches up against this Michigan defense. Between the Badgers’ offensive efficiency and Michigan’s lackluster defense, expect Wisconsin to bounce back in a big way after back-to-back losses.
Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Wisconsin vs. Michigan on Wednesday, February 7.
Wisconsin vs Michigan best odds
Wisconsin vs Michigan picks and predictions
There was a time when the Wisconsin Badgers looked like they might really push both the Purdue Boilermakers and Illinois Illini for the Big Ten regular season title. While the Badgers are still in contention sitting at 8-3 in conference and tied with the Illini, the team is coming off a loss on Sunday to the Purdue Boilermakers after falling in overtime earlier in the week to the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Prior to those losses, the Badgers had been on a 15-2 run and looked like the best Wisconsin team in years thanks to a little extra offensive juice. The Badgers have always run one of the slowest offenses among high majors dating back to the Bo Ryan days, and that’s continued this season, but star guard AJ Storr has given the team more explosiveness than Badgers fans are used to seeing.
Between Storr becoming a star and the Michigan Wolverines' defensive woes, the Badgers are in for a big night of pouring on points. Wisconsin’s team total is set at 75.5 and this Michigan defense has been allowing well over 76 points per game in conference this season.
At 7-15 overall and 2-9 in the Big Ten, it’s no shocker that the Wolverines have been giving up 78.8 points per game this season (336th in the country) and sit 186th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Wolverines have been beaten up on by some of the top offenses in college basketball with the third-toughest schedule based on opponents adjusted offensive efficiency this season.
Many of those top offenses have been the ones the program has had to play in conference, and Wisconsin will be yet another one for Howard’s squad to deal with this season. Of the 11 Big Ten games Michigan has played, five came against programs ranked in the Top 20 of adjusted offensive efficiency.
In those five games against Purdue, Illinois, the Michigan State Spartans, and the Iowa Hawkeyes twice, Michigan allowed an average of 87.2 points per game and gave up at least 80 points in all five outings.
That bodes well for a Badgers offense that’s eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency this season and has lit the scoreboard up against lesser Big Ten defenses. While Wisconsin is averaging 75.5 points per game this season, in its seven games against Big Ten teams ranked outside of the Top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Badgers are scoring 79.8 points per game.
Behind Storr’s team leading 16.4 points per game, the Badgers have shot 47.1% from the floor, 53.6% from two, and 77.5% from the free throw line, all rank in the Top 65 in the country. With the shooting of Max Klesmit, Wisconsin is also hitting a respectable 34.9% from behind the arc — Klesmit leads the way hitting 41.8% of his threes.
The Wolverines have been horrendous at defending the perimeter this season, allowing teams to shoot 35.8% from deep, 322nd in the country. The team hasn’t been much better from the floor with programs shooting 45.5% and 50.1% from two. Michigan will have its hands full trying to slow Storr and contain Klesmit, but the other issue is the Wolverines lack of size.
The Badgers front court duo of Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl are averaging a combined 22.8 points per game and both are shooting at least 56% this season. Between the Badgers four leading scorers, Michigan is going to have a hard time stopping one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
My best bet: Wisconsin team total Over 75.5 (+110 at PROLINE+)
Wisconsin vs Michigan same-game parlay
Wisconsin moneyline
Over 144.5
The Badgers have struggled over the last two games, but Michigan fell into Wisconsin’s schedule at the perfect time. Gard needs a win and Michigan has been the worst team in the Big Ten this season. With Wisconsin’s consistency on offense and solid enough defense, the Badgers are poised to walk over the Wolverines as the Crisler Center, even if Michigan hangs more points than expected.
While Michigan’s defense has been one of the worst in the Big Ten this season, its offense has been quietly steady. It's partially due to the sheer amount of possessions a team playing next to no defense gets by default, but the Wolverines have been averaging an impressive 77 points per game.
Both Dug McDaniel and Olivier Nkamhoua are averaging over 15 points per game and the Wolverines rank Top 50 in 3-point percentage this season (36.9%). That gives Howard something to lean on to exploit a Wisconsin defense that’s been good, ranking 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, but has struggled to stop 3s.
The Badgers are allowing opponents to shoot 35.7% from deep and Michigan has four different players hitting at least 1.2 threes per game. Three of them are shooting at least 35.1% from deep. So while the Badgers are in prime position to rack up the points, the Wolverines can do enough to hit the Over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Wisconsin vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
Despite Wisconsin dropping its last two games, books opened with the Badgers between 5.5 and 6-point favorites as they head to Ann Arbor. The line has moved slightly, but most books have the Badgers -5.5. PROLINE+ has Wisconsin as -6.5-point favorites at +100, while most other books have them -5.5 at -110 or -111.
While the Badgers have been one of the best teams in the country this season, the team is just 11-10-1 ATS. It’s really struggled in recent weeks going 1-4-1 ATS, but has been 6-4-1 ATS in the Big Ten. The Wolverines, on the other hand, are among the worst teams in the country ATS. Michigan is 6-16 ATS, including 2-13 since December. In conference, Michigan has gone 2-9 ATS.
The game total has bounced around a bit since most books opened between 143.5 and 144.5. While PROLINE+ has it at 144.5 — with the best odds at +115 — most books have slowly seen it dip down to 142.5 at -110 to -118.
The Badgers have gone 13-9 betting the Over this season and are on a 10-3 stretch betting the Over. With how poorly Michigan has played on defense, it’s been a solid Over bet this season as well. The Wolverines are 14-8 betting the Over and 5-6 in the Big Ten.
Wisconsin vs Michigan betting trend to know
Wisconsin has hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+2.55 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Michigan.
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Wisconsin vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 7, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
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