Seventeen days ago, the Memphis Tigers were the tenth-ranked program in the country, but an unexplainable, four-game losing skid could leave Memphis on the outside looking in come tournament time.
Saturday, the Tigers have their backs to the wall and host a Wichita State team that has dropped nine of their last 10 with a strong desire to send the Tigers to their fifth consecutive loss after allowing 112 points to Memphis at Wichita just one month ago.
Who will win this American Athletic Conference tilt? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Wichita State and Memphis on Saturday, February 3.
Wichita State vs Memphis best odds
Wichita State vs Memphis picks and predictions
The last time the Memphis Tigers won a basketball game and covered the spread was against this same program they defeated in Wichita 112-86.
Since then, Memphis has dropped four straight, but their problems go back to January 4 when reserve guard Caleb Mills was lost for the season with a knee injury.
Since Mills went down on January 4, the Tigers barely beat SMU at home, needed OT to dispatch UTSA, blew out the Shockers in Wichita, and then went on a four-game losing skid to lesser opponents. Memphis hasn’t been aggressive on defense ever since Mills' season-ending injury, and the results have been underwhelming.
Turnovers have also been a major issue for Memphis; only the Shockers commit more turnovers in the AAC than the Tigers do, and Memphis has committed a whopping 34 turnovers over their last two contests.
Wichita State hasn’t been much better than Memphis. They’ve lost nine of their last 10 and 2-7-1 ATS during that bad run. Turnovers and mediocre shooting from everywhere have been the soundtrack to their past 10 matchups and the Shockers' entire season.
The two lightning-fast offenses put 198 points on the board in regulation on January 14, but 158.5 points are still too many this Saturday.
Saturday is a game the Tigers should win and really must win. Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway has been screaming about the Tigers' defensive effort for weeks, and we’ve seen small signs of improvement from Memphis. They’ve surrendered fewer than 75.7 points in six of their previous seven home games and meet a Wichita State offense averaging 71.1 points per away tilt.
The Shockers might be one of the worst defenses in the AAC, but they’ve allowed fewer than 73.7 points in three of their last five. It’s the same defense that allowed 112 at home to Memphis in their previous meeting, but you can bet Wichita State won’t allow Memphis any easy looks from anywhere.
Finally, their previous encounter was an aberration, and the 158.5-point total is too high as a result. Both sides drained over 52% from downtown and 55% from inside the arc in their last meeting, and that kind of shooting is an exception and not the rule for both teams.
My best bet: Under 158.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Wichita State vs Memphis same-game parlay
Under 150.5
Wichita State -10.5
This same-game parlay with my best bet pays $251 for a $100 bet and correlates nicely with Under 158.5.
Memphis is 1-9-0 ATS over their last 10, and they aren’t playing well. For that matter, neither is Wichita State, but the Shockers are 2-2-1 ATS over their previous five, and I expect them to play hard enough to cover the +10.5.
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Wichita State vs Memphis spread and Over/Under analysis
Memphis is 1-9-0 ATS over their previous 10, yet they are a -10.5 favorite over a Wichita State program that doesn’t cover much but is 2-2-1 ATS over their last five. That doesn’t seem right and is likely an overreaction to their previous meeting.
The problem is Memphis isn’t the same team that buried the Shockers in Wichita. They have struggled recently against teams ranked 114-205 on the KenPom rankings, and it isn’t unrealistic to see them struggle against Wichita State.
The Shockers covered at FAU the only time they were double-digit away underdogs this season. Memphis is 0-4-0 over their last four as a double-digit home favorite, and if Wichita State is a double-digit underdog, that market is in play for me.
FanDuel has Wichita State +425 to pull off the upset, and I am leaning toward the Shockers' shocking Memphis. Wichita State has a pair of upsets to its credit, but both of those upset victories were in Wichita. The Tigers have lost four straight and haven’t played confidently since Mills' season-ending injury, and they could be ripe for another bad home loss to a highly motivated Wichita State program.
Wichita State vs Memphis betting trend to know
The Under is 3-2 over the Tigers' last five, and the Under is 3-2 over the Shockers' previous five matchups. Find more college basketball betting trends for Wichita State vs. Memphis.
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Wichita State vs Memphis game info
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, February 3, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Wichita State vs Memphis key injuries
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