Washington State vs California Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bears Make for Golden Under

A potential darkhorse in the Pac-12 tournament, the No. 5 seed Washington State Cougars (16-15) come in likely needing a tournament win for a March Madness ticket. 

All the Cougars need to do to clinch an NCAA Tournament bid is to win four games in four days. Sounds simple, right? 

Their first matchup comes against the No. 12 seed, the California Golden Bears (3-28). 

Will the Cougars make quick work of their first-round opponent? 

Check out our college basketball picks for Washington State vs. California on Wednesday, March 8 to find out.

Washington State vs California best odds

Washington State vs California picks and predictions

Washington State is a potential dark horse in the Pac-12 tournament. While the record may not look like much at just above .500, the Cougars possess a formula that can play well in tournament settings — play solid defense and shoot a ton of threes. If the Cougars get hot, look out. 

Kyle Smith’s team has had some good moments this season, notching a 13-point road win over Arizona on January 7 and closing the regular season with six straight victories. The Cougars even deemed themselves confident in defeats, falling to UCLA by just a single point in the first matchup and hanging tight in a six-point loss to Baylor.

Smith’s first-round opponent couldn’t be much worse. How bad is Cal? Really, really bad. The Golden Bears are perhaps the worst Power 5 team in the nation and the advanced numbers support that. Mark Fox’s team ranks all the way down at 262nd overall in KenPom. 

Cal has played 14 games away from home this season. Its record in those games is 0-14. Yes, that’s right, zero wins away from home. Perhaps that stat becomes somehow less impressive when you consider that the Golden Bears have won just three games all season. 

The offense is utterly abysmal, ranking 309th in adjusted efficiency. They rank dead last in points per game nationally with a measly 58.5 ppg. The defense isn’t quite as bad, surrendering 70.1 ppg while ranking 192nd in adjusted efficiency. 

I’ll be targeting the total here instead of a side. 

The pace in this game should resemble that of a snail race — both teams are in no hurry offensively. Washington State checks in at 330th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, preferring to slow the game down to a halt when in possession of the ball. California managed to play at an even slower pace, ranking 343th in adjusted tempo — perhaps to limit the amount of possessions which will ultimately result in failure. 

The Cougars lock down defensively, surrendering just 65.4 points per game while walling off the arc (32.3% shooting allowed from 3-point range). Cal can’t shoot to save its life, ranking 359th in field goal shooting (39.2%) and 348th in 3-point shooting (30.0%).

Washington State is just fine offensively, averaging 68.1 points per game while playing at a methodical pace. California’s defense is nothing special, but it does rank a decent 87th in 3-point defense against the average opponent (Haslametrics). 

I’ll play the Under in a game that should be played at a very slow pace and featuring one of the country’s worst offenses. 

My best bet: Under 126.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Washington State vs California spread analysis

The market opened Washington State -14 at most locations before moving down to -13.5 and -13. 

For as big of a fan as I am of Washington State in this tournament given its recent form and style of play that fits well for this tournament, I can’t lay the points in this spot. The Cougars typically play much better at home with a 10-3 ATS mark in Pullman but a 4-12 ATS record away from home.

Most of Cal’s struggles at the betting window have come at home (5-12), while the Golden Bears are actually slightly profitable away from home (8-6). These teams played just a few days ago on March 2 and California was +12 at home, covering in a 63-57 final score. I don’t believe that the spread should suddenly be two points wider on a neutral court. 

Backing a miserable Cal team is not how I will choose to wager my hard-earned money in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. Instead, I recommend remaining prudent and looking for better opportunities to back Washington State if a more accurate number presents itself in future rounds — assuming Smith’s side takes care of business, of course. 

Washington State vs California Over/Under analysis

California’s offense is so miserable that it did not have a single player average double figures in scoring over the course of the season. Big man Lars Thiemanmann was the closest with 9.5 ppg, while Kuany Kuany was right behind at 9.1 ppg. 

Cal doesn’t do much of anything well offensively. The Golden Bears are simply incompetent from all three levels. Here are their ranks from the three major areas of the court, per Haslametrics: 190th in 3-point shooting, 358th in mid-range shooting, and 273rd in near-proximity shooting. 

Washington State is led by big man Mouhamed Gueye (14.5 ppg). He’s the star who anchors both the offense and defense. TJ Bamba actually leads the team in scoring with 15.7 ppg after exploding for a career-high 36 points against Washington in the regular season finale. 

The Cougars have been an Under team all season thanks to their slow pace, going 19-12 to the Under overall. When isolating for games away from home, they’re 11-7 to the Under.

Washington State vs California betting trend to know

Under is 6-1-1 in Cougars' last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Find more college basketball betting trends for Washington St. vs. California.

Washington State vs California game info

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