Vergil Ortiz Jr. is closing in on a title shot at junior middleweight and has demonstrated his willingness to jump right into the deep end of the division.
Waiting for him now is the ready and experienced Erickson Lubin, who figures to give him the toughest fight of his career when these two face off this weekend.
Here are my free Ortiz Jr. vs. Lubin predictions and betting picks from Fort Worth.
Want to make sure Covers shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed?
Simply click here and add Covers as one of your "source preferences".
Ortiz Jr. vs Lubin prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Ortiz Jr. ML (-900 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Over 9.5 rounds (-125 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Vergil Ortiz Jr. is not taking his foot off the gas when it comes to establishing himself as the top dog at junior middleweight.
After dispatching the very tough Israil Madrimov and Serhii Bohachuk, he's moving on to face Erickson Lubin, who has been a consistent fixture of the division's Top 10 for the last few years.
Lubin's two losses have only come to current or former world champions, so this fight will gauge how much Ortiz has to offer as he nears the true elite at 154 pounds.
Based on his last fight, Ortiz has been forced to grind it out and rely on more than his physical talents. Madrimov severely tested him, and he narrowly outpointed Bohachuk despite being dropped twice in that fight.
The size advantage that made Ortiz a punching machine at welterweight is no longer at his disposal now that he’s fighting opponents who match his size. It's no coincidence that of his 23 wins, the only two that have gone the distance have been at junior middleweight.
Lubin is the kind of fighter who makes you earn every inch, and he’s being overlooked here. He’s won three straight after a competitive stoppage loss to Sebastian Fundora, including a major upset over Jesus Ramos in 2023 and an 11th-round TKO of Ardreal Holmes Jr. earlier this year.
Lubin’s fast hands, a solid jab, and a 4.5-inch reach advantage give him an edge against Ortiz. His only two losses, stoppage losses to Jermell Charlo and Fundora, are indicative of what kind of fighter it takes to beat him, and he’s still in his prime at 30 years old.
This is a dangerous fight for Ortiz. Lubin can frustrate pressure fighters, especially those who rely on rhythm and momentum, and can hold his own when things get rough.
Ortiz won’t get far rushing Lubin down, and would be better off trying to stay inside and rough Lubin up to the body before throwing his big shots.
If Ortiz shows more of what we saw from the Madrimov fight than what we saw from the Bohachuk fight, he should do enough to win. Ortiz is the pick in a fight that might be much closer than the odds indicate.
Best best analysis
Ortiz doesn’t carry the same stopping power he did at 147, and Lubin has proven he can take punishment and dish out some of his own.
I don't see this as a blowout, as the oddsmakers are predicting, but rather something that could potentially be tight until the final few rounds.
Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs Erickson Lubin odds
| Method of victory | Vergil Ortiz Jr. | Erickson Lubin |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -900 | +550 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -135 | +900 |
| Win by points or decision | +165 | +1400 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 11-8.
Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs Erickson Lubin tale of the tape
| Ortiz Jr. | Lubin | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Super Welterweight | Weight Class | Super Welterweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 74.5 inches |
| 23-0 | Record | 27-2 |
| 21 | Wins by KO | 19 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
