UCLA vs Colorado Odds, Picks and Predictions: Offenses Take Over in Las Vegas

The No. 1 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament makes its first appearance as Mick Cronin’s UCLA Bruins (27-4) play their first game after losing starter Jaylen Clark for the year due to injury.

Their opponent will be the No. 9 seed Colorado Buffaloes (17-15), who advanced with a 74-68 victory over Washington in the first round. Both teams enter this matchup shorthanded without a key starter.

What will the impact of those losses be on Thursday? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for UCLA vs. Colorado on March 9.

UCLA vs Colorado best odds

UCLA vs Colorado picks and predictions

UCLA has been one of the best teams in the country this season. Depending on which bracketologist you ask, the Bruins are either a No. 1 seed or a No. 2 seed in current March forecasts heading into the full swing of conference tournament week. Picking up a few more wins sure would help this team’s claim for the top seed out West.

Cronin’s side finished its domination of the Pac-12 regular season in runaway fashion, winning 10 straight games to seal the deal. The Bruins are up to No. 2 in the AP Poll, but they still aren’t assured of a top seed when it comes time to dance and therefore will seemingly be motivated to help ensure their own fate when it comes to Selection Sunday.

UCLA cleaned house when it came to the conference’s awards. Senior Jaime Jaquez Jr. was named the 2023 Pac-12 Player of the Year — the program’s first since Kevin Love won the award as a freshman in 2008.

Meanwhile, Jaylen Clark was honored to the second team and also pulled home the Defensive Player of the Year award. However, the Bruins were dealt a big blow when Clark suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in the regular-season finale against Arizona.

Clark led the Pac-12 with 2.6 steals per game and is regarded as one of the top defenders in the entire nation. He was integral to UCLA’s identity this season and his loss will be felt both on defense and offensively, where he averaged 13.0 points per game (second on the team) while spearheading the transition attack.

Colorado will also be shorthanded for this matchup as points guard KJ Simpson is out for the tournament after contracting mono. He’s tied for the team lead with 15.9 ppg and leads the Buffs with 3.8 assists per game, so his loss is difficult to overstate.

The Buffaloes were able to advance with a six-point win over Washington in the first round, although it’s worth mentioning that the Huskies have now dropped seven of their last 10 games and therefore don’t exactly qualify as a formidable opponent. Still, Colorado has won two straight games and played UCLA close in the penultimate game of the regular season, falling 60-56 in a contest that was close throughout.

I believe that Thursday’s matchup will be more high-scoring than anticipated as UCLA is now without one of the best defenders in the country. Colorado will look to push the tempo in order to get UCLA out of its comfort zone. The Buffaloes rank 88th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric and were not shy about getting out and running in the opening round with a whopping 66 field goal attempts against the Huskies.

This total opened at 132, which is pretty low considering this tournament in Las Vegas can tend to be high-scoring. Going back to last year’s tournament, six of the eight games in the opening two rounds exceeded 132 points.

I’m forecasting that the injuries for both sides change the style of play for both teams in this specific matchup, as UCLA’s offense could open up in the halfcourt while Colorado looks to make this an up-tempo back-and-forth whenever possible.

My best bet: Over 132.5 (-110 at bet365)

UCLA vs Colorado spread analysis

Colorado has been hanging tough to end the season, covering in five of its last six games. Tad Boyle slotted in Julian Hammond to replace Simpson in the first round against Washington.

The second-year guard played a season-high 36 minutes and answered the call with 15 points, three rebounds, five assists, and a whopping five steals. UCLA has been underrated in the betting market all season long, notching an 18-12-1 record against the spread.

The Bruins went 11-8-1 ATS during conference play, standing above the rest of the league while also exceeding expectations set by the bookmakers. Colorado doesn’t have a ton left to play for, but Boyle is a terrific coach and has his team playing arguably its best basketball of the season.

The loss of Clark could be a momentarily demoralizing one for UCLA as this should be a time of celebration and renewed focus after virtually sweeping the Pac-12 award. Some pundits have already decided to write of UCLA’s chances in the NCAA Tournament sans the services of Clark.

While I think that is entirely discounting this veteran roster, this is not a spot where I’m rushing to back UCLA.

UCLA vs Colorado Over/Under analysis

Playing the Over in this spot runs contrary to a lot of the trends for both sides. Colorado’s strength this season has been a stout defense that ranks 16th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency. That has made the Buffaloes an Under team during conference play where they went 14-7 to the Under.

Colorado has cashed the Under in five of its last seven games, while UCLA has gone 12-8 to the Under in conference play. The Pac-12 was profitable to the Under for the most part as a league, but I’m not sure that trend will continue in Las Vegas.

This has been a friendly shooting backdrop for players in the past and UCLA has plenty of capable shooters on the roster. Colorado likes to play with pace and that doesn’t seem to be changing without Simpson in the lineup.

UCLA vs Colorado betting trend to know

The Over is 5-2 in the Buffaloes' last seven neutral site games. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Colorado.

UCLA vs Colorado game info

UCLA vs Colorado key injuries

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