Texas vs TCU Picks and Predictions: Back Streaking Horned Frogs Against Visiting Longhorns

TCU has been on a tear of late, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine. Tonight, they're getting points at home against a Texas squad that hasn't looked as strong as their early-season selves. That's why we're backing the home side in our NCAAB betting preview.

Last Updated: Jan 25, 2022 12:43 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Mike Miles TCU Horned Frogs college basketball
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We've got a Big 12 clash in the Lone Star State tonight with the Texas Longhorns facing off against the TCU Horned Frogs.

Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring clash in this one with the Over/Under of 123 the lowest of all 34 games on the college basketball betting board tonight.

Here are our best free college basketball picks and predictions for Texas vs. TCU on Tuesday, January 25, with tipoff at 9 p.m. ET 

Texas vs TCU odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line opened with the Longhorns installed as 2.5-point road favorites with the Over/Under at 120.5. Early money came in on Texas and the Over, shifting the line to Texas -3 and the total to 123.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Texas vs TCU predictions

Predictions made on 1/25/2022 at 11:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Texas vs TCU game info

Location: Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX
Date: Tuesday, January 25, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

Texas at TCU betting preview


Texas: No injuries to report.
TCU: Maxwell Evans G (Out), Shahada Wells G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

TCU is 8-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. TCU.

Texas vs TCU picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Less than three weeks ago, Chris Beard and the Longhorns were looking like a National Championship contender but since then they have lost three of their last five games going 1-4 ATS over that span. They are coming off a 56-51 win over Oklahoma State on Saturday to make up for a 13-point loss to the Cowboys on Jan. 11. 

TCU is fresh off a 59-44 win against Iowa State and has won three of its last four games, with the only loss during that stretch coming by a single point on the road against Oklahoma State. That's particularly surprising when you consider that TCU's best player, sophomore guard Mike Miles, is in the midst of a slump averaging 6.3 points and 1.7 assists per game in his last three contests after posting 17.8 PPG and 4.8 APG in his first 12 games. 

Both of these teams have been dominant defensively with TCU 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom while Texas is just one spot below them. 

While the Longhorns have been more efficient on the offensive end of the floor, averaging 106.5 points per 100 possessions to the Horned Frogs 99.7 points per 100 possession, that discrepancy shrinks when you factor in the home-court advantage. TCU ups that average to 102.1 points per 100 possessions at home while the Longhorns put up just 98.5 points per 100 possessions on the road. 

This is an intriguing matchup because we've seen how these schools have played against several common opponents over the last few weeks. The Longhorns lost on the road to Iowa State, beat Oklahoma by 14 at home, split a home-and-away with Kansas State, and split a home-and-away against Okie State where they lost by 13 in Stillwater.

The Horned Frogs defeated the Cyclones on the road, beat the Sooners at home (albeit in overtime), defeated the Wildcats on the road, and lost to the Cowboys by just a single point in Stillwater.

With TCU playing better against common conference foes, boasting home-court advantage, and getting spotted three points, the Horned Frogs look like the side to take. Especially when you consider that they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and the Longhorns are just 1-5 ATS in their previous six contests on the road. 

Prediction: TCU +3 (-110)

Both of these teams shoot the ball poorly with the Longhorns posting a 43.4 FG% on the road and the Horned Frogs outside the Top 200 with a field goal percentage of just 42.9. They also both play at a very slow pace with Texas 350th in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and TCU ranked 281st. 

As competitive as the Horned Frogs have been lately, they've struggled offensively putting up just 59.6 PPG in their last five games. They can thank their defensive play for their recent success, limiting foes to just 54 PPG in their previous four contests despite one of those games going into overtime. 

Combine all that with a Longhorns team that holds opponents to just 54.9 points per game, the lowest number in the country, and the Under looks like the obvious play. 

Prediction: Under 123 (-110)

Obviously, the toughest thing about betting the Under in this game is the extremely low number on the board. That said, when you consider that it opened at 120.5 you're actually getting solid value by taking it at 123 now.

Keep in mind that four of the Longhorns last five games have seen fewer than 123 total points scored while the Horned Frogs have gone below that number in four straight. 

Typically I consider four basic elements about both teams when betting totals; offense, defense, pace, and recent form. All of those factors in this matchup point strongly towards the Under, so don't overthink this one and take the Under. 

Pick: Under 123 (-110)

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