The Kentucky Wildcats hope to make an easier go of things when they return to Rupp Arena to host the Texas Longhorns tonight.
After a pair of last-minute thrilling wins at LSU and Tennessee, the Wildcats will want a repeat of their last home game when they blew out Mississippi State.
See why I’m expecting another strong performance from Denzel Aberdeen in my Texas vs Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, January 21.
Texas vs Kentucky prediction
Texas vs Kentucky best bet: Denzel Aberdeen Over 12.5 points (-120)
Jaland Lowe played just three minutes for the Kentucky Wildcats in their win over Mississippi State before suffering a shoulder injury that ended his season.
Denzel Aberdeen has stepped up to fill the void. He dropped 16 points and four assists in that blowout win over the Bulldogs, and followed it up with two clutch road performances of 17 and 22 points, respectively, against LSU and Tennessee.
Now the Texas Longhorns visit, a team that ranks 108th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. But in SEC play, the Horns rank dead last in that metric.
They also sit 12th in the conference in eFG% defense, and 14th in defending the arc. It’s a big reason why opponents have averaged better than 1.19 points per possession in four of their five SEC tilts.
Mark Pope said on Tuesday that he believes Aberdeen has yet to hit his ceiling, and given the guard has the experience of winning a national championship last season, he’s just the kind of player who can thrive in a Kentucky offense that struggles at times to find a rhythm.
Aberdeen has the ball in his hands more often with Lowe out, and he’s responded by posting some of his best metrics of the season, while cutting down on his turnovers.
Where he can truly help this team is with his outside shot. He’s connected on multiple 3-point attempts in each of the last three games — as many times as he had the rest of the season combined.
If he does so again, in a game where we should see plenty of scoring, then I struggle to see how he doesn’t score at least 13 tonight.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Texas vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Aberdeen took over the scoring load in the second half against the Vols, which led to him having just two assists. It ended a three-game stretch where he dropped at least four dimes, a mark he’s reached in eight of his last 13 games. He should reach it against this struggling Texas defense.
But it’s not just the Longhorns who aren’t defending. The Wildcats rank dead last in SEC play in defensive eFG%, and allowed 1.23 PPP to the Vols on the weekend. The Longhorns have scored at least 70 points in seven straight games, and with the Wildcats shooting better from outside, this should be an entertaining affair.
Texas vs Kentucky SGP
- Denzel Aberdeen Over 12.5 points
- Denzel Aberdeen Over 3.5 assists
- Over 154.5
Our beyond the arc SGP: Longhorns Offer Some Resistance
Tramon Mark is a clutch shooter, and he has a history of hurting Kentucky, as he dropped 26 points last season and 23 the year before with Arkansas. The Longhorns shoot often from outside, and Mark has connected on multiple triples in four of his five SEC outings.
Matas Vokietaitis draws more fouls at a high rate and has an offensive rebound rate of 10.1% on the season. With Jayden Quaintance still out injured, he should pull down at least six boards.
Texas vs Kentucky SGP
- Denzel Aberdeen Over 12.5 points
- Denzel Aberdeen Over 3.5 assists
- Over 154.5
- Tramon Mark Over 1.5 threes
- Matas Vokietaitis Over 5.5 rebounds
Texas vs Kentucky odds
- Spread: Texas +7 (-110) | Kentucky -7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas +255 | Kentucky -315
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110)
Texas vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Texas vs Kentucky
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Wednesday, January 21, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Texas vs Kentucky key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
